Europe Economics Update Gas prices and European competitiveness The increase in European gas prices caused by the Iran war has been much smaller than in 2022 but it will make European industry less competitive compared to the US. Within Europe, it will weigh on... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the April’s weak surveys The larger-than-expected fall in euro-zone activity surveys in April challenges our view that the hit from the Iran war will be small. But the surveys have not always been a good guide to actual... 24th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April) The sharp fall in the PMI activity indices in April suggests at face value that the Iran conflict may have more of chilling effect on activity than we have been assuming, while the increases in the... 23rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Effects of Iran conflict beginning to show up There were clear signs this week that the Iran conflict is causing inflation and inflation expectations to rise in the euro-zone. Next week we expect to learn that headline inflation jumped from 1.9%... 27th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ national inflation data (February) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation rose in February and that the core and services rate s were little changed. That is unlikely to change the ECBs... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth slowing, what next for Lagarde? February's PMIs showed an increase in price pressures, but we suspect that this reflects higher oil prices as other indicators suggest that wage growth has continued to slow. We expect a further... 20th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone flash PMIs (February) February’s flash PMIs support the view that activity in the euro-zone economy is growing at a reasonable pace, led by a pick-up in Germany, and that price pressures remain too high for the ECB to... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bundesbank embracing joint borrowing? Comments by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel this week suggest the German central bank has abandoned its long-standing opposition to EU joint borrowing. But while we might see some more jointly... 13th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French bond rally looks overdone The French government's survival after bypassing parliament to implement the 2026 budget has done nothing to improve the country's long-term debt dynamics. So we think that the recent narrowing of... 30th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2025) & Unemployment (Dec. 2025) Euro-zone GDP growth remained around its trend rate in Q4 and we expect it to maintain that pace in 2026. 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain GDP (Q4 2025) National data published this morning suggest that euro-zone GDP grew by a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q4. Spain remained the star performer, while Germany, France and Italy also... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone PMIs (January 2026) While the new year has begun with a lot of geopolitical turbulence, the flash PMIs for January suggest that the euro-zone economy is still expanding at a moderate pace while price pressures rose a... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe will move cautiously over Greenland threats If implemented and sustained for a long period, the new tariffs that President Trump has threatened over the Greenland dispute could cost the euro-zone economy something between 0.2% and 0.5% of GDP... 19th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Greenland tariffs: the political consequences would trump the economic It remains unclear whether President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries unless a deal is reached to acquire Greenland will ever materialise. But if it does, the economic... 18th January 2026 · 3 mins read
