Chief Economist's Note France is in a mess but this isn’t 2012 redux What began as a political crisis risks descending into farce. Barely a week after stepping down, Sébastien Lecornu has been reappointed as France’s prime minister, the fourth in a year. The episode... 13th October 2025
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest bond market mess While long-term government bond yields have stabilised today, political developments in France and Japan over recent days highlight how fiscal uncertainty continues to put upward pressure on long-term... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The fallout from France’s ongoing political deadlock The latest political developments in Paris underline that France is heading for some kind of fiscal crisis which in turn means the risk premium on its debt is likely to rise in the coming year or two... 6th October 2025 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s PM resignation: what next? The resignation of yet another French prime minister, this time after just 27 days, hammers home how the fractured parliament is making it nearly impossible to pass a budget that reduces the fiscal... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September 2025) September’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy grew fairly slowly again in Q3 and that price pressures eased. 23rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily French bonds are up the Bayrou without a paddle The (largely expected) fall of the French government has made limited impact on euro-zone financial markets. But it represents another step in the gradual deterioration of the outlook for French... 9th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Your questions on France answered This Update answers the key questions that we received during this morning’s online Drop-in on the collapse of France’s government. (The recording is available here.) The key points are that while... 9th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Thirty-year EZ bond yields are not such a worry Yields on long-dated government bonds have been a talking point for investors again this week but we don’t think the increase will have much impact on the economic outlook for the euro-zone. Next week... 5th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Parsing the long-end bond sell off As long-end government bond yields continue to rise, identifying the culprit for the latest sell-off becomes ever more pressing. 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is contagion from France? Contagion from France’s government bond market to the rest of the euro-zone will probably be muted and short-lived unless France’s own crisis becomes much bigger than we expect. This is partly because... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the UK (or France) heading for an IMF bail-out? The UK’s fiscal and balance of payments position may be far from a picture of health but speculation that it may be forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout is far-fetched. The risks are greater for... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
