Europe Economics Update Spain and Italy hit harder by ECB rate hikes The higher share of floating rate mortgages in Italy and Spain means that household interest spending in both countries has risen much further than in Germany and France. Interest spending is also set... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany and Spain HICP (August) August’s slightly higher-than-expected inflation rates in Germany and Spain mean euro-zone HICP inflation may not fall as far as we had anticipated (data due tomorrow) and marginally raise the chance... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tourist boost to Iberian retail rents has run its course A strong rebound in tourism has bolstered retail rents in Spain and Portugal over recent quarters. However, we think this boom has run its course. Alongside a weak domestic consumer outlook, this... 30th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France and Spain GDP (Q2 2023) The big increases in Q2 GDP in Spain and particularly France suggest that the euro-zone has so far coped with policy tightening much better than feared. However, the France data were flattered by... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain election result The People’s Party won the most seats at yesterday’s general election but, even together with the far-right VOX, they achieved only 169 seats which leaves them seven short of a majority. With the... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election uncertainty in Spain The upcoming election in Spain may result in a change of government, but it is unlikely to change the country’s short-term economic fortunes. Low inflation and a rebound in tourism will help GDP... 11th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain HICP (June 2023) The further fall in Spanish HICP inflation will provide some respite for households who have suffered a sharp hit to real household income over the last year. But it will have little sway over ECB... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Europe Economics Update Double jeopardy if you bank in Spain Over the past year, Spanish households have seen a bigger increase in their cost of borrowing than those of any other large euro-zone economy, but the increase in the interest paid on deposits has... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has Spain’s economic recovery been weak? Spain’s underperformance since the pandemic can be explained in part by the incomplete recovery in its tourism sector and in part by the sharp fall in real household disposable incomes. That said... 26th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong supply to drag on Spanish industrial rents Industrial occupier demand in Spain is set to slow sharply this year and next, as the economy falls into recession. And with both Madrid and Barcelona poised to see a record level of speculative... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMIs suggest that the economy expanded in Q1. They also point to further gains in employment and strong price pressures. With the turmoil in the banking sector having stabilised, this makes us... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany & Spain Flash Inflation (March) The big falls in headline inflation in Germany and Spain should provide some relief for struggling households in the coming months. And core inflation in Germany may now have passed its peak. However... 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q4) Spain’s GDP increased in Q4 and is performing better than we expected only a couple of months ago. But Spain is still a laggard in Europe, with the economy smaller than it was before Covid. We think... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Be wary of the Spanish inflation data A closer look at Spain’s inflation data shows that there are significant measurement difficulties affecting both energy and core price data. However, we still expect measured headline inflation to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
