Europe Commercial Property Update Rental growth to converge in Spain’s top high streets Prime high street rental growth in Barcelona has outpaced Madrid since late 2022. However, we think rental growth will converge in the coming years as tourism numbers fall back to pre-pandemic levels... 10th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France & Spain HICP (September 2024) September’s inflation data from France and Spain all but confirm that the headline rate in the euro-zone as a whole – released next week – will show a sharp decline to below the 2% target. 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Your questions answered We held an online Drop-In session this week to discuss the outlook for the euro-zone. (See a recording here.) This Update addresses some of the questions that we received, including some that we didn... 25th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Economy slowing again The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The core economies are the weakest, led by Germany which is probably in another technical... 18th September 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany and Spain HICP (Aug.) Inflation figures for Germany and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation may have fallen to the ECB’s 2% target in August and that the core rate edged down. That paves the way for a September... 29th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly September cut still likely; Germany-Spain divergence We think data released this week are just about consistent with an ECB rate cut in September, but with underlying price pressures still high that is not a done deal. Meanwhile, the recent economic... 2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Focus EZ spreads on different paths after French election We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall. 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany and Spain HICP (July) The increase in German HICP inflation from 2.5% in June to 2.6% in July left it a little higher than expected and means that the aggregate euro-zone inflation rate, which will be published tomorrow... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National-level GDP (Q2 2024) National-level data released so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 and the weakening of the surveys in July suggests GDP growth may have eased further this quarter. 30th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ageing population to weigh on EZ labour market Net immigration to euro-zone countries will probably be higher than the UN assumes in its latest population forecasts. But we still think the working age population will decline over the coming decade... 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update High migration to support strong GDP growth in Spain We think Spain’s economy will grow strongly over the next few years, substantially outperforming the euro-zone. This is partly due to strong domestic demand which has been supported by the rapid... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France, Italy & Spain HICP (June) Inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in June, while core and services inflation held broadly steady. This supports our view that the ECB... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read