Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of Next Generation EU We estimate that the EU’s pandemic recovery scheme, Next Generation EU (NGEU), will have boosted GDP in countries such as Greece and Italy by around 1.5% over its six-year lifetime. It therefore... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Conversions reinforce a strong Spanish office rent outlook Office rental growth in Spain’s major markets will be underpinned by rapid employment growth and relatively low rates of hybrid work. And these trends are further supported by healthy conversion... 2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rent outlook solid, but little room for yield falls The solid pace of economic growth in Spain over the next couple of years will continue to support robust rates of industrial rental growth. However, we don’t think that will be enough to justify large... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France and Italy GDP (Q2 2025) National data available so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed from 0.6% q/q in Q1 to either 0.1% or 0.0% in Q2, in part due to the reversal of tariff front-running. (Our projection was 0.2%... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update A bad deal is (just about) better than no deal The trade agreement confirmed yesterday by Presidents Trump and von der Leyen could result in the average tariff on US imports from the EU rising from 1.2% last year to about 17%. We think this will... 28th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices will continue to climb High income growth and immigration are likely to continue to drive increases in house prices in Spain over the coming years. Demand will be further boosted by the recent fall in mortgage interest... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain Flash HICP (June) National data published so far suggest that both euro-zone headline and core inflation were little changed and close to 2% in June. That will please ECB officials, who we expect to cut rates one more... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Narrowing of euro-zone spreads not as good as it looks While spreads in the euro-zone have narrowed further recently, nearing multi-year lows, this is mainly because underlying German Bund yields have risen. Indeed, public finances in some euro-zone... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (May 2025) OPEC+’s announcement that it will pick up the pace of oil output increases for the second consecutive month in June helped to push oil prices to four-year lows. This represents a marked shift in... 8th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Still little sign of tariff impact, Spanish blackout hit Data released this week suggest that US tariffs have not had a noticeable impact on euro-zone activity yet. But we still think they will cause GDP growth to grind to a halt in the next six months... 2nd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Iberian blackout puts spotlight on grid infrastructure It’s possible that the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula goes down in history as a catalyst for widescale electricity grid upgrades which ultimately help to bolster the pace of the renewable... 1st May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain & Sweden GDP (Q1) Spain’s rapid economic growth (+0.6% q/q in Q1) is likely to continue for some time yet, despite trade uncertainty. While consumption and government spending were weaker than expected in Q1, we think... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Large variation in long-term office demand prospects across the euro-zone Five years since the onset of the pandemic, the share of remote working in the euro-zone has generally increased by more than we had expected back in 2020. But office-based employment growth has also... 2nd April 2025 · 11 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2025) The EC survey for March shows a deterioration in business and consumer sentiment in the euro-zone, consistent with GDP doing little more than stagnate in Q1. This is a reminder that while sentiment in... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
