Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (May) The PMIs are consistent with the euro-zone’s economic recovery gathering pace in May. Price pressures in the manufacturing sector are intensifying, but we still think that higher inflation will be... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Drop back in bond yields takes pressure off ECB The fall in sovereign bond yields over the past week may make things a little easier for the ECB Governing Council when it meets on 10 th June. We think it is likely to replace its commitment to make... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Spain set for short-term gains, but long-term pain Spain’s economy had been set for a bright 2021 as the vaccine offered hope of a bumper summer tourism season. But the poor start to the rollout means that is now looking less likely. Moreover, the... 10th February 2021 · 21 mins read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q4) Tough restrictions imposed in France and Austria last autumn to curb the spread of COVID-19 caused both countries’ GDP to fall in Q4. Spain’s laxer approach meant its economy actually grew. But for... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too pessimistic about Spanish office rents? Our forecast is for a cumulative fall in Spanish prime office rents over the next two years. But we think this view is justified as occupier demand is likely to improve only gradually, meaning space... 11th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much would a vaccine boost Spanish tourism? A widespread rollout of an effective vaccine next year should allow a fairly swift return to normality for Spain’s hard-hit tourism sector and would transform the short-term economic outlook. We... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s economic outlook darkening The resurgence of COVID-19 in the euro-zone has hit Spain the hardest and hospital capacity there is under strain, most notably in Madrid. Restrictions have taken a toll on activity and stricter ones... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q2) The record plunge in Spain’s GDP of 18.5% q/q is likely to have been one of the biggest falls of any euro-zone country in Q2, illustrating the severity of the country’s lockdown and its slow and... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rise in cases a further blow to Spain’s weak recovery Spain’s economic recovery was already set to be one of the weakest in the euro-zone but the resurgence in virus cases over the past week and subsequent re-imposition of restrictions deals a fresh blow... 29th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May), Spain Ind. Prod. (May) Euro-zone retail sales rebounded sharply in May, but spending will still have collapsed in Q2 as other types of spending remained weak. Meanwhile, industrial production is recovering more slowly. 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response French, Spanish & Austrian GDP (Q1) Lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus caused unprecedented quarterly contractions in GDP in France and Spain in Q1. And with the restrictions set to remained unchanged until mid-May and then be... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How quickly will euro-zone activity return to normal? Although restrictions are set to be lifted in the coming weeks, economic activity in the euro-zone will remain significantly below pre-virus levels for a long period. Consumers are likely to be wary... 29th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is southern Europe finally embracing e-commerce? While COVID-19 has forced consumers in southern Europe to shop online, we think that e-commerce penetration will remain lower for structural reasons, which is one reason why prime retail rents in... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish recovery to be slow and protracted Economic activity in Spain has collapsed as a result of the measures to contain the coronavirus. And even if the government begins to lift some of the restrictions next week, as it has suggested, the... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) The PMIs show that activity in Italy and Spain plummeted even before the authorities in both countries shut down all non-essential businesses. Euro-zone GDP is almost certain to fall at a record pace... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish government too optimistic on 2020 growth Spain’s new government has downgraded its forecasts for economic growth and eased up on the planned pace of budget deficit reduction. But we think that GDP growth this year will be even slower than it... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
