Europe Economics Update Is the fiesta over for the Spanish economy? The Spanish economy recorded its smallest quarterly expansion in four years in Q2 and the business surveys weakened again in July, suggesting that the period of very strong growth is at an end. But... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Madrid offices still a good bet? Although prime office yields in Madrid have been flat for the past year, pricing doesn’t appear to be obviously stretched. And while capital value growth is largely done, good rental growth prospects... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A snap election would be good for Spain Spain’s Government is teetering and a snap election is on the cards. Given the rise of populists in Italy, an increase in political uncertainty in Spain seems concerning. But while the situation is... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French and Spanish GDP (Q4) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The first estimates of French, Spanish and Austrian GDP in Q1 suggest that quarterly growth in the euro-zone as a whole slowed from Q4’s 0.7% to around 0.4%. Meanwhile, there were no signs of rising... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Worries about Germany are overdone Developments in Germany this week have increased concerns that the euro-zone’s growth engine is really starting to sputter. But we think that some of these concerns are overdone. After all, recent... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Spanish inflation set to pick up? Despite Spain’s recent strong run of form and the prospect of higher wage growth, we suspect that core inflation will remain subdued at close to 1% this year and next. With inflation set to remain in... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone’s continued problems The large imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system indicate that all is still not quite right in the region. There are some good reasons to expect the imbalances to narrow again over the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q4, breakdown) The first breakdown of Spanish GDP showed encouragingly broad-based growth in Q4 despite the effects of the political crisis in Catalonia. Meanwhile, the surveys paint a positive picture of the... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Barcelona office rents defy political uncertainty The political crisis in Catalonia has not prevented prime office rents in Barcelona from rising in Q4. We see prime rents rising again in both Barcelona and Madrid this year and next, though the... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics French & Spanish GDP (Q4) The French economy’s healthy expansion in Q4 rounded off a strong year, while surveys point to an acceleration in growth ahead. Meanwhile, tensions in Catalonia had little impact on Spanish growth. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s strength not yet a major concern The main news for the euro-zone economy at the year’s outset has been the further appreciation of the euro. While this might seem like a major headwind to the economy’s upturn, we remain optimistic... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the Catalan election mean for the economy? The Catalan election result seems unlikely to prompt a major push for independence any time soon, so we doubt that it will have a material economic impact. As a result, the Spanish economy looks set... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q3, breakdown) The first breakdown of Spanish GDP in Q3 showed that domestic demand growth picked up ahead of Catalonia’s independence referendum. While the Economic Sentiment Indicator painted a positive picture of... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German and Spanish consumer prices data support expectations that euro-zone inflation reversed last month’s decline as energy inflation rose. But underlying price pressures are still... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softly, softly...the ECB is tweaking its forward guidance Our reading of the minutes of the ECB’s October policy meeting is that the Bank has begun to prepare the ground for an end to its asset purchases. Before long, the ECB seems set to stop promising to... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
