Rebound in energy prices not yet a major worry

The rebound in energy prices following the breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire is not big enough to change our view that the ECB has probably finished its hiking “cycle”. Meanwhile, we think President’s Trump’s threat to cut off all trade with Spain is unlikely to come to anything.

Next week we will be holding an online discussion of the outlook for Germany following the 34-point reform plan unveiled by the government earlier this month. (Register here.)