Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: End of tariff front-running to weigh on Q2 GDP Data published this week suggest that the boost to the euro-zone economy from exporters front-running US tariffs came to an end at the start of the second quarter. Next week, we expect central banks... 13th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariff front-running fades, disinflation continues While policymakers at the ECB indicated this week that they may be at the end of their easing cycle, we think they will probably make one more rate cut this year, in September. Meanwhile, we agree... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU-US deal prospects, German government priorities The latest legal twists in the US tariff saga have raised the risk of further increases in sectoral tariffs, which could be particularly damaging for Germany and Ireland. Nevertheless, our base case... 30th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Disagreement at the ECB but more cuts to come Data released this week – and Donald Trump’s latest threat of imposing a 50% tariff on imports from the EU – reinforce our view that the ECB will cut interest rates in June and loosen policy further... 23rd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the EU at back of the queue for a trade “deal”? We suspect that the US and EU will reach an agreement to avert the 20% baseline US tariff which is scheduled to come into effect on 9th July - but we doubt that such an agreement is imminent... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the UK-US deal a good omen for the EU? EU policymakers won’t have felt too excited about the US-UK trade deal announced yesterday. The deal is limited in scope, the details are yet to be finalised, and the EU might find it more challenging... 9th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Still little sign of tariff impact, Spanish blackout hit Data released this week suggest that US tariffs have not had a noticeable impact on euro-zone activity yet. But we still think they will cause GDP growth to grind to a halt in the next six months... 2nd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariffs may cause EZ GDP to flatline in Q2 and Q3 Business surveys for April suggest that US tariffs have not done much damage in the euro-zone so far. But we think there will be a noticeable impact in the coming months and have reduced our forecast... 25th April 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: ECB; pharma tariff front-running; France’s budget This week brought some evidence that front-running US tariffs boosted euro-zone industrial production in Q1, but this effect will of course be “transitory”. Meanwhile, statements from France’s finance... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: The fallout from tariff mayhem in EZ markets This week’s historic changes in US trade policy and the associated market fallout point in the direction of a weaker euro-zone economy, lower inflation and looser monetary policy. While bond spreads... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariff shock heightens risks The larger-than-expected tariff imposed by US President Trump on the EU means the hit to the euro-zone economy will be larger than we had anticipated. For now, a euro-zone recession is still not our... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariffs dampen the mood With the major business surveys for March now published it is clear that economic activity is still growing slowly at best. The good news about the German fiscal stimulus has boosted sentiment but the... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: New, higher growth forecasts Optimism about the euro-zone economy has risen markedly in recent weeks and we have revised our GDP growth forecasts up. We now think the economy will grow by 0.9% this year, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.0% in... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: How big a boost from defence? Europe’s plans to increase its defence expenditure are still evolving, but based on what we know so far, we assume that for the euro-zone as a whole it will rise by around 0.5% of GDP between 2024 and... 14th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Fiscal policy and the ECB This week has brought a fundamental shift in Europe’s approach to defence spending and fiscal policy more generally. While there are reasons to be cautious about the boost that this will provide to... 7th March 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Germany defence fund, ECB cuts The special fund for defence proposed by Germany’s presumptive next Chancellor Friedrich Merz would secure funding for defence spending to rise from 2% of GDP to 3.5% and make budget negotiations a... 28th February 2025 · 9 mins read
