Europe Economics Weekly New French PM, German “autumn of reform” Hints by France’s new prime minister that he will water down plans for budget cuts emphasise that meaningful fiscal tightening in the coming years is very unlikely and support our view that French... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Thirty-year EZ bond yields are not such a worry Yields on long-dated government bonds have been a talking point for investors again this week but we don’t think the increase will have much impact on the economic outlook for the euro-zone. Next week... 5th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Question marks over recovery, small progress on trade Economic data released this week cast some doubt on our forecast that euro-zone GDP growth will accelerate in the latter part of this year. Meanwhile, the EU-US joint statement on trade, also released... 22nd August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin and the euro-zone economy We do not expect President Trump’s meeting with President Putin to make a breakthrough on the Ukraine conflict. But even if there is a "deal" in the coming months the implications for the wider... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: More US tariff threats; construction sector Provided it stands the test of time, the deal agreed between the US and EU means that the bloc should be exempt from the 100% tariff that President Trump has threatened on semiconductor imports, as... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone looks resilient to tariffs, German budget The US-EU trade deal announced last Sunday and confirmed by the recent US Executive Order was in line with expectations for a 15% tariff on most goods exports to the US. We think it will cost the euro... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: A bad deal is better than no deal Reports this week suggest that the EU and US are on the brink of agreeing a trade deal with a 15% baseline tariff on US imports from the bloc. It’s hard to spin it as a good deal, but it would at... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trade data resilient despite difficult negotiations Trade data released this week suggest that exports from the EU and Switzerland have been quite resilient since the US imposed a 10% tariff on most products in April. Meanwhile, despite an increase in... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone economy benefiting from tariffs The media focus this week has continued to be on EU-US trade negotiations as the pause on Liberation Day tariffs was extended beyond the 9th July deadline and President Trump threatened to send a... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Could the euro’s strength prompt a July cut? With the euro going from strength to strength and energy prices having dropped back the case could arguably be made for the ECB to cut rates in July and some policymakers have sounded concerned about... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Stronger euro, 50% tariff looming The sustained appreciation of the euro will reduce headline euro-zone inflation slightly in the coming months and, at the margin, strengthens the case for a final interest rate cut in this cycle... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Middle-East conflict clouds ECB outlook Our base case remains that the Israel-Iran conflict eases, energy prices drop back and the ECB cuts rates one more time in this cycle. But if energy prices stay around their current levels further... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: End of tariff front-running to weigh on Q2 GDP Data published this week suggest that the boost to the euro-zone economy from exporters front-running US tariffs came to an end at the start of the second quarter. Next week, we expect central banks... 13th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariff front-running fades, disinflation continues While policymakers at the ECB indicated this week that they may be at the end of their easing cycle, we think they will probably make one more rate cut this year, in September. Meanwhile, we agree... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU-US deal prospects, German government priorities The latest legal twists in the US tariff saga have raised the risk of further increases in sectoral tariffs, which could be particularly damaging for Germany and Ireland. Nevertheless, our base case... 30th May 2025 · 9 mins read
