Europe Economics Weekly Recession or not, economy is set to suffer The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed that the economy stalled in Q4 last year and also revealed that domestic demand fell off a cliff. Data published so far this year point to continued... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Massive SNB losses, rising Swiss inflation A closer look at Swiss inflation data for February suggests that underlying price pressures are higher than initially meets the eye. We think this will encourage the SNB to raise rates by at least... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly QT launched, France flatlining? The latest data suggest that France’s economy is performing a little better than Germany’s and may even avoid recession, at least in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, we expect to learn next... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggling, Switzerland holding up Data released this week showed that Sweden’s economy contracted by more than previously thought in Q4, and we expect further declines to come. But Switzerland’s economy is holding up better and there... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q1 resilience, ECB losses The latest survey data for February suggest that the euro-zone economy is holding up better than we expected in Q1. However, a contraction is still well within the realm of possibility. Meanwhile, we... 24th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Krona focus could mean more Riksbank rate hikes We doubt that the Riksbank’s new-found concern for the krona will make much difference to the outlook for the currency - which will probably remain at the mercy of global developments. However, it is... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Has core inflation already peaked? A leading ECB dove argued this week that core inflation has passed its peak on some measures. However, these measures are distorted by Germany’s temporary transport subsidies last summer. Underlying... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Higher inflation shows the SNB has further to go We now think that the SNB policy rate will peak at 1.75% this year, rather than 1.25%. Core inflation has risen for the last four months in succession and we think the SNB will be more hawkish than we... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Erik Thedéen makes a splash The new Riskbank Governor has opened his account with a hawkish policy shift and we now think the Bank’s policy rate will peak at 3.5% this year, rather than 3.0%. Nonetheless, we still think Sweden... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB policymakers expect more hikes after March At February’s ECB meeting, policymakers were unwilling to commit to raising interest rates further beyond the promised 50bp hike in March. But their comments this week show a clear intention to do so... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Some more thoughts on the ECB meeting While yesterday’s ECB meeting triggered some big moves in financial markets, we think it does not fundamentally alter the outlook for monetary policy. We are still expecting persistently high core... 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Property slump push Swedish inflation down The fact that Sweden’s inflation rate rose more than expected in November and December is a key reason why we expect the Riksbank to raise rates by 50bp next week. Looking further ahead, however, we... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy stagnating; inflation volatility ahead The recent run of better-than-expected activity data in the euro-zone only look good compared to previously dire expectations. The big picture is that the euro-zone’s growth prospects look bleak. Next... 27th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism on the Norwegian krone The recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone might have further to run, but we think that rising energy prices and improved investor risk appetite will cause it to strengthen in the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc likely to remain broadly stable We had previously forecast the Swiss franc to rise against the euro in the first half of the year as we thought the ECB would raise interest rates a bit less than the market anticipated and that there... 20th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession postponed or even cancelled We suspect that the resilience of the economy in late-2022 was due to the combination of lower energy prices, increased government support and easing supply problems in industry, while the drag from... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
