Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Higher inflation shows the SNB has further to go We now think that the SNB policy rate will peak at 1.75% this year, rather than 1.25%. Core inflation has risen for the last four months in succession and we think the SNB will be more hawkish than we... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Erik Thedéen makes a splash The new Riskbank Governor has opened his account with a hawkish policy shift and we now think the Bank’s policy rate will peak at 3.5% this year, rather than 3.0%. Nonetheless, we still think Sweden... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB policymakers expect more hikes after March At February’s ECB meeting, policymakers were unwilling to commit to raising interest rates further beyond the promised 50bp hike in March. But their comments this week show a clear intention to do so... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Some more thoughts on the ECB meeting While yesterday’s ECB meeting triggered some big moves in financial markets, we think it does not fundamentally alter the outlook for monetary policy. We are still expecting persistently high core... 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Property slump push Swedish inflation down The fact that Sweden’s inflation rate rose more than expected in November and December is a key reason why we expect the Riksbank to raise rates by 50bp next week. Looking further ahead, however, we... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy stagnating; inflation volatility ahead The recent run of better-than-expected activity data in the euro-zone only look good compared to previously dire expectations. The big picture is that the euro-zone’s growth prospects look bleak. Next... 27th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism on the Norwegian krone The recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone might have further to run, but we think that rising energy prices and improved investor risk appetite will cause it to strengthen in the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc likely to remain broadly stable We had previously forecast the Swiss franc to rise against the euro in the first half of the year as we thought the ECB would raise interest rates a bit less than the market anticipated and that there... 20th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession postponed or even cancelled We suspect that the resilience of the economy in late-2022 was due to the combination of lower energy prices, increased government support and easing supply problems in industry, while the drag from... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic outlook improving, but still poor The euro-zone economy held up better than we anticipated in Q4 and the outlook for the coming quarters has improved. But with high inflation set to continue to weigh on household incomes and the drag... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank, Riksbank and ECB to converge on 3% With economic activity and inflation both ending last year a bit stronger than anticipated, central banks are on track to deliver more policy tightening in the coming weeks, beginning with a 25bp hike... 13th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Contrasting outlooks for Swiss and Swedes The latest data underline Sweden is suffering both a sharper slowdown and higher inflation than Switzerland. Meanwhile, we expect to learn next week that underlying inflation remains uncomfortably... 6th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Some (moderately) good news on inflation and activity Data released this week suggest that headline inflation in the euro-zone has passed its peak, but that core price pressures remain strong. Meanwhile, the latest activity indicators have been a bit... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gas price ceiling, new year forecasts The ceiling on gas prices agreed in principle by the EU this week is unlikely to have any practical impact. The big picture is that gas prices look set to remain very high next year. The key release... 22nd December 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss money supply, Swedish surveys The recent jump in money growth in Switzerland doesn't change our view that the SNB will raise interest rates only once more, to a peak of 1.25%, which would be lower than is priced into markets... 22nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Central banks unfinished in their battle with inflation Rate hikes were announced by many central banks this week, including the SNB and Norges Bank which raised rates by 50bp and 25bp respectively. However, inflation forecasts issued by the central banks... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
