Europe Economics Weekly ECB heading for a hawkish 25bp hike Despite President Lagarde’s hawkish language at Sintra and inflation once again coming in higher than expected in June, we think the ECB will raise rates by “only” 25bp later this month. However, with... 1st July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US recession fears won’t deter ECB Fears about a possible US recession have prompted investors to revise their ECB interest rate expectations down this week, but we have pushed ours up to show the deposit rate peaking at 2%. While next... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Don’t bet against a 50bp Norges Bank hike in August The Norges Bank intends to follow this week’s 50bp interest rate hike with a 25bp rate rise in August, but the combination of strong global inflation pressures, an incredibly tight labour market in... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More on the SNB; Norges Bank to hike by 50bp Even after the strong gains in the franc against the euro and US dollar after yesterday’s SNB rate hike, the Swiss real effective exchange rate is still about 5% below its level in early 2020 when the... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB has done the easy bit, harder work is to come This week, the ECB arrested the sell-off in peripheral bond markets without announcing very much at all, but there’s only so long that markets will be soothed by encouraging words about a possible... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Farewell, Cecilia Skingsley; rate hikes & house prices We expect house prices to fall in Sweden and Norway this year as rising interest rates push up borrowing costs. But the peak-to-trough declines are likely to be smaller than those in Canada, Australia... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly High inflation will keep ECB hawks in charge this year Euro-zone inflation is likely to remain higher than the ECB expects over the rest of this year. That will keep the balance of opinion on the Bank’s Governing Council tilted firmly in favour of the... 10th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Stagflation taking hold The slump in German retail sales in April is a reminder than surging inflation is a headache not only for the ECB but also for households whose purchasing power is being eroded. Stagflation is... 1st June 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Monarchical achievements & “killer apps” Real per capita incomes in the UK have risen by 1.9% on average each year since Elizabeth II came to the throne in 1952. But the monarchical bragging rights go to Harald V in Norway, under whom GDP... 1st June 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Jumbo rate hikes looming into sight The change which we made to our ECB forecast this week has prompted us bring forward some of the rate hikes in our profile for the Scandinavian central banks and even the SNB, all of which we think... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Struggling economy will not put ECB off 50bp hike Data released this week suggest that there are upside risks to our forecast for GDP to contract in Q2, but the economy still looks set to perform very poorly this year. And we doubt that this weak... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly High inflation, record trade deficit Data released over the past week revealed that the euro-zone recorded its first monthly current account deficit since 2012 and provided further evidence that underlying price pressures are building... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Dumbo does monetary policy in Stockholm The elephant-based metaphor used by Governor Ingves this week to describe how the ECB’s actions affect the Riksbank was particularly well judged given the increasing chance that Swedish and euro-zone... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NATO retaliation; Riksbank eyeing front-loading? Even if reports that Russia is close to cutting off the supply of natural gas to Finland prove accurate, Finland seems well placed to replace Russian flows with LNG imports from elsewhere. So, while... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB more hawkish as investors rein in rate hike bets The ECB’s hawkish conversion appears to be all but complete, with more officials this week joining the ranks of those calling for rates to rise in July and expressing a clear desire to get the deposit... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Schlegel gets a pay rise; new split at the Riksbank The fact that the successor to Fritz Zurbrügg as Vice-Chair of the SNB’s Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, is an SNB stalwart means the looming changes at the top are unlikely to change the decision... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
