Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB say relax; Norges Bank to press on with hikes The SNB does not seem to be losing much sleep about the strength of the franc against the euro, despite the currency’s brief foray past parity earlier this week. The truth of the matter is that euro... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further thoughts on the ECB Yesterday’s ECB decision was more hawkish than expected, so while we are sticking to our view that QE will end in Q3 and the Bank will raise interest rates in December, the risks are now skewed... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Finland exposed; Swiss franc on cusp of euro parity As we argued only last week, the SNB has so far been willing to let the franc rise against the euro. However, policymakers’ tolerance would surely be tested if the franc were to push through the... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revising down our euro-zone GDP forecasts The ratcheting-up of sanctions on Russia and the further surge in commodity prices this week mean we are revising down our euro-zone growth forecast for 2022. Exports to Russia will collapse while... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Safe-haven franc not a dire concern for the SNB The divergence between gold prices and the Swiss franc/euro cross rate in the hours after the start of the invasion of Ukraine suggests to us that the SNB intervened to limit the sharp rise in the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis to affect inflation more than growth As a result of the Ukraine crisis, we have revised up our inflation forecasts even further above the consensus. But we think that the impact of higher inflation on consumption will be cushioned by the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB consensus building on policy normalisation While Russia-Ukraine tensions escalated further still this week, the economic spillovers to the euro-zone are likely to be limited and are therefore unlikely to change the ECB’s policy assessment... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s CPI surprise; Norway’s glitterati have dinner The pick-up in underlying price pressures in Sweden in January plays into the hands of the Riksbank’s hawks, who are likely to flex their talons, and makes it even more difficult for Cecilia Skingsley... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Ingves overrules logic and the hawkish mutineers The main takeaways from this week’s Riksbank announcement were that a) Governor Ingves is stubbornly dovish, and; b) three of the six members of the Executive Board advocate “QT” this year. Given that... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB only partly rows back from hawkish shift Sifting through the numerous statements by ECB policymakers this week leaves us still thinking that the ECB is likely to “recalibrate” its plans in March and pave the way for an end to QE and a first... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly What’s Norwegian for ‘nepotism’?; franc in freefall! The sharp fall in the Swiss franc against the euro since Christine Lagarde’s hawkish routine on Thursday will have been music to the ears of the SNB. We think the Bank will be happy to bask in the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A hawk in owl’s clothing Highly-indebted euro-zone governments look better placed to cope with tighter monetary policy than they were when the ECB last raised interest rates, in 2011. In most cases, governments’ interest... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong labour market not yet feeding through to wages Surveys published this week suggested that the euro-zone economy has had a weak start to 2022 amid surging cases, but this is likely to be short-lived. Meanwhile, although the labour market appears to... 28th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Case for rate hikes in Sweden continues to build With the Swedish economy flying, core inflation picking up, and inflation expectations back above target, the stage is surely set for a hawkish mea culpa at the Riksbank’s next policy announcement, on... 28th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy inflation will fall, but core will stay around 2% The key event this week (for us at least) is the publication of our forthcoming European Economic Outlook setting out forecasts for 2022 and 2023. In brief, we think the euro-zone will come through... 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Green bond germination in Denmark The fact that Denmark’s first “green” bond was nearly five-fold oversubscribed this week, and achieved a 5bp “greenium” over the corresponding conventional 10-year bond, illustrates the depth of... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
