Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly What’s Norwegian for ‘nepotism’?; franc in freefall! The sharp fall in the Swiss franc against the euro since Christine Lagarde’s hawkish routine on Thursday will have been music to the ears of the SNB. We think the Bank will be happy to bask in the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A hawk in owl’s clothing Highly-indebted euro-zone governments look better placed to cope with tighter monetary policy than they were when the ECB last raised interest rates, in 2011. In most cases, governments’ interest... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong labour market not yet feeding through to wages Surveys published this week suggested that the euro-zone economy has had a weak start to 2022 amid surging cases, but this is likely to be short-lived. Meanwhile, although the labour market appears to... 28th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Case for rate hikes in Sweden continues to build With the Swedish economy flying, core inflation picking up, and inflation expectations back above target, the stage is surely set for a hawkish mea culpa at the Riksbank’s next policy announcement, on... 28th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy inflation will fall, but core will stay around 2% The key event this week (for us at least) is the publication of our forthcoming European Economic Outlook setting out forecasts for 2022 and 2023. In brief, we think the euro-zone will come through... 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Green bond germination in Denmark The fact that Denmark’s first “green” bond was nearly five-fold oversubscribed this week, and achieved a 5bp “greenium” over the corresponding conventional 10-year bond, illustrates the depth of... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly “Rate hike” Olsen to bow out with a whimper Norges Bank Governor Olsen has presided over more rate hikes (seven) than any other G10 bank head since he took the role in January 2011. But with the Bank set to leave rates on hold at his last... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone GDP barely grew in Q4, inflation risks rise Data released this week suggest that our assumption that euro-zone GDP rose by 0.2% in Q4 could be too optimistic, but we still think that the economy will grow in Q1. Meanwhile, rapid house price... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nationalbank getting stuck in ahead of likely rate cut Following the chunky DKK 47 billion intervention by Denmark’s Nationalbank in December to weaken the krone, we suspect that the bar for a rate cut has already been cleared comfortably. So while many... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone to keep calm and Omicr-on in 2022 While the new year has started much like 2021 did, with a surge in Covid cases and consumers becoming more cautious, the response of governments has been markedly different. In general, blanket... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB slightly more hawkish than expected Following a the ECB’s slightly hawkish policy shift this week, we have penciled in a rate hike for 2024 and think the chance of a 2023 lift-off has risen. The big picture, though, is that the ECB will... 17th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB to take ECB’s lead; Stoltenberg for NB? Having drawn flak from domestic banks for keeping interest rates well below zero since 2015, the SNB would surely take the chance to raise its policy rate at the earliest possibility after the ECB... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly How to get a job at the SNB; declining mobility Our CE Mobility Trackers for Sweden and Norway paint a downbeat picture for the consumer sector and mirror the clear downward trend seen in the euro-zone over H2 2021. So while we still expect the... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Omicron uncertainty weighs on activity in Q4 This week brought more bad news for the euro-zone economy, with the surge in cases and spread of the Omicron variant casting a shadow over services sector activity. While recent restrictions have... 10th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB’s patience appears to be wearing thin We argued this week that the upside for the Swiss franc was limited and its inability to push past the CHF 1.04 per euro mark suggests that policymakers’ patience may already have been exhausted. We... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s line on inflation contrasts with the Fed’s In contrast to those at the US Fed, ECB policymakers are not ready to retire their argument that the current bout of high inflation is temporary. This reflects the significant difference in... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
