ECB policymakers have continued to push back against the prospect of rate cuts this spring. But they won't feel bound by that guidance if their assessment of the inflation outlook changes. So we still think the first cut is most likely to happen in April because we expect inflation to fall to only just over 2% in February and March. But policymakers may still err on the side of caution and wait until June. Next week, we expect to learn that employment grew in the euro-zone in Q4 and that Swiss inflation in January fell to close to 1%.
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