Europe Economics Update Second act for negative rates in Switzerland While it will be close call, we think the SNB is most likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp next week, bringing it back below zero. That would leave little room for more rate cuts further ahead. 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence... 10th June 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Lower inflation in Europe, but not lower yields Below-target inflation in the euro-zone and deflation in Switzerland bring back memories of the 2010s, but the drivers of low inflation are fundamentally different this time and we don’t see much... 3rd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q1 2025) Switzerland’s GDP growth shocked to the upside in the first quarter and grew by 0.7% q/q, shaking off concerns that trade uncertainty would weigh on the economy. This means the SNB is more likely to... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2025) Euro-zone GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q1 but that was partly due to temporary tariff front-running effects. And while higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth... 9th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Safe haven flows to force SNB into action With the Swiss currency having experienced its largest two-week appreciation since the “Frankenshock” in 2015, the SNB may already have started selling francs in the FX market. We have a 25bp cut... 11th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (March) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in March, but that news has been overshadowed by the much higher-than-expected tariffs announced by the US on Swiss goods yesterday which weaken the outlook... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB at the end of the cycle In the press conference following today’s SNB meeting, Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasised that inflation risks are mainly do the downside, suggesting that a further cut in June is possible. But we... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s last cut in the cycle We expect the SNB to cut its policy rate by 25bp next week to take it to 0.25% in response to the very low inflation rate early this year. But we think that will be the last cut of the cycle, as... 13th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (February) While we still think the SNB is most likely to err on the side of caution and cut its policy rate by a further 25bp on the 20 th March, higher than expected inflation in February increases the chance... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) The fall in inflation in January was a little smaller than we had anticipated and perhaps reduces the risk of Switzerland falling into deflation later this year. But we still think the SNB is most... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, Bank of England & ECB – The June decisions and the policy outlook 1750341600 Will the Fed remain on the sidelines in the face of dovish inflation data? How will the Bank of England react to fresh signs of a stagnating economy?
Event Drop-In: The SNB June decision – Are negative rates set for a comeback? 1750251600 We think the Swiss National Bank will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its meeting on 19th June – taking the policy rate into negative territory for the first time sin
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) The fall in Swiss inflation in December suggests that the SNB’s decision to cut by a bumper 50bp in December was fully justified. We think the SNB will cut the policy rate by a further 25bp at its... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
