Europe Economics Update Safe haven flows to force SNB into action With the Swiss currency having experienced its largest two-week appreciation since the “Frankenshock” in 2015, the SNB may already have started selling francs in the FX market. We have a 25bp cut... 11th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (March) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in March, but that news has been overshadowed by the much higher-than-expected tariffs announced by the US on Swiss goods yesterday which weaken the outlook... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB at the end of the cycle In the press conference following today’s SNB meeting, Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasised that inflation risks are mainly do the downside, suggesting that a further cut in June is possible. But we... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s last cut in the cycle We expect the SNB to cut its policy rate by 25bp next week to take it to 0.25% in response to the very low inflation rate early this year. But we think that will be the last cut of the cycle, as... 13th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (February) While we still think the SNB is most likely to err on the side of caution and cut its policy rate by a further 25bp on the 20 th March, higher than expected inflation in February increases the chance... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) The fall in inflation in January was a little smaller than we had anticipated and perhaps reduces the risk of Switzerland falling into deflation later this year. But we still think the SNB is most... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) The fall in Swiss inflation in December suggests that the SNB’s decision to cut by a bumper 50bp in December was fully justified. We think the SNB will cut the policy rate by a further 25bp at its... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from next week’s data Next week will be a busy one for data releases in Europe. We think that the data will underline that core price pressures are continuing to ease gradually in the euro-zone, while economic growth... 3rd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Low growth, low inflation, low rates We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening... 16th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2024) This morning’s 50bp rate cut by the SNB, which brought the policy rate to 0.5%, came as a surprise to most economists though it was balanced by a revised policy statement which implies that... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to cut by 25bp and state further cuts to come In contrast to market pricing, we think that the SNB will be cautious and cut its policy rate by just 25bps, to 0.75%, next week as the Bank sticks to a gradual approach to loosening monetary policy... 5th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The uptick in Swiss inflation in November is likely to prove short-lived and should not prevent the SNB from cutting interest rates again in December and further next year. 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2024) Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further encourage the SNB... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October) Another larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation in Switzerland will increase concerns that the country could temporarily enter deflation next year. This will pile on pressure on... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
