Climate Economics Update

In other news from Switzerland …

In ordinary times, today’s launch of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth synthesis report in Interlaken would have been the most high-profile news event to emerge from...

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Credit Suisse still under scrutiny

The huge lifeline offered to Credit Suisse by the SNB this week has resolved its immediate liquidity problems but it may not be the end of the story given the bank's underlying problems. Meanwhile, we...

Global Markets Update

Banking stress raises another dilemma for central banks

We are resending this Stress Monitor to include clients of our Global Economics Service. The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened...

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Feb.)

The CPI data for February suggest there is a long way to go before inflation returns to target especially as underlying prices pressures show no signs of abating, with the core inflation rate reaching...

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Sweden struggling, Switzerland holding up

Data released this week showed that Sweden’s economy contracted by more than previously thought in Q4, and we expect further declines to come. But Switzerland’s economy is holding up better and there...

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Strong franc is not the key to low Swiss inflation

In our view, the Chairman of the SNB has over-stated the role of the exchange rate in explaining why inflation has remained so comparatively low in Switzerland in the past two years. However...

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland GDP (Q4)

Despite stagnating in Q4, the Swiss economy remained notably bigger than its pre-pandemic level and has outperformed its European peers. We are forecasting a contraction in Q1 2023 and for the economy...

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Swiss franc likely to remain broadly stable

We had previously forecast the Swiss franc to rise against the euro in the first half of the year as we thought the ECB would raise interest rates a bit less than the market anticipated and that there...

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Dec.)

Headline inflation in Switzerland fell in December but the rise in the core rate will be a concern for SNB policymakers. We still think that the Bank will raise rates by just 25bp in March, compared...

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

SNB hikes by 50bp, hints at more to come

The SNB’s 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, was in line with expectations but, more importantly, the Bank also raised its medium-term inflation forecast slightly, hinting that policymakers believe future...

Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response

Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2022)

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

SNB and Norges Bank to hike on “Super Thursday”

We expect the Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank to raise interest rates next Thursday, by 25bp and 50bp respectively, bringing an end to the tightening cycle for the SNB and getting close to the end...

Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch

SNB to end tightening cycle with 50bp hike

The SNB is likely to look through the recent fall in inflation and hike rates by 50bp next Thursday, to 1.0%, in line with market expectations. We now think that this will be the end of the tightening...

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Tweaking our forecast for Switzerland

With recent data suggesting that the Swiss economy is holding up better than we had anticipated, we now think GDP will be unchanged in 2023 compared to this year. That would still imply a weaker...

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Nov.)

The low inflation rate in November supports our view that the Swiss National Bank will not need to raise interest rates much further in the current cycle. Indeed, there is a growing chance that...