Europe Rapid Response

Swiss Flash GDP (Q4 2025)

The 0.2% q/q rise in sporting event adjusted GDP in Q4 was a bit smaller than we expected (+0.5%). This may be partly because the 39% tariff imposed on Switzerland by the US was only reduced to 15%...

· 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Bundesbank embracing joint borrowing?

Comments by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel this week suggest the German central bank has abandoned its long-standing opposition to EU joint borrowing. But while we might see some more jointly...

· 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (January)

Swiss inflation remained at 0.1% in January and we expect it to undershoot the consensus forecast and stay around zero for the rest of the year. Combined with the strength of the franc, we think this...

· 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB on the FX sidelines, but negative rates coming

We do not think that the SNB has intervened in FX markets in recent days despite the Swiss franc’s large appreciation. Instead, we think policymakers are likely to combat any disinflationary pressure...

· 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (December)

Swiss inflation edged up in December but remained close to zero and we think it will remain around that level this year. While the SNB left its policy rate at zero in December, we think policymakers...

· 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB’s negative rate reluctance to be tested next year

The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation and kept faith that its zero interest policy rate will be sufficient to boost inflation in the medium term. We think it will be less relaxed next...

· 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (December 2025)

The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation in the fourth quarter and kept its policy rate at zero. However, we think it will be less relaxed next year, when we expect inflation to average just...

· 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB to bide its time and delay negative rates to 2026

Inflation undershot the SNB’s forecast and fell to zero in November, but we think officials are unlikely to respond by lowering the policy rate next week. By June next year, however, we think that...

· 5 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (November)

The fall in Swiss inflation to zero will raise significant concerns in the SNB as officials had expected it to rebound and average 0.4% in Q4. This makes it more likely that the SNB will cut into...

· 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

US-Swiss deal to help reverse GDP contraction

Assuming it is implemented soon, the deal to lower US tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to 15% would leave Swiss exporters paying the lowest US average tariff rate of any major economy, at around 7%...

· 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2025)

The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in Q3 shows that US trade policies have been much more disruptive for Switzerland than was anticipated. But a deal agreed last Friday will reduce the tariff on Swiss exports...

· 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (October)

The slight fall in Swiss headline inflation in October will come as a big surprise to the SNB, which expected inflation to increase markedly in the fourth quarter. However, we think that inflation is...

· 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB heading for negative rates (but no others following)

We think it is just a matter of time before the SNB returns to negative policy rates as inflation is close to zero and geopolitical risks may put upward pressure on the franc. But negative rates will...

· 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Swiss inflation to be stuck at zero

Switzerland’s inflation remained at just 0.2% in September and it is likely to average close to zero over the coming years. This is in part due to temporary factors, such as reductions in the mortgage...

· 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (September)

Switzerland’s headline inflation rate once again remained at 0.2% in September, but we think it will fall back to zero by early next year. Accordingly, we expect the SNB to cut interest rates again...

· 2 mins read