Europe Economics Update SNB to bide its time and delay negative rates to 2026 Inflation undershot the SNB’s forecast and fell to zero in November, but we think officials are unlikely to respond by lowering the policy rate next week. By June next year, however, we think that... 4th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The fall in Swiss inflation to zero will raise significant concerns in the SNB as officials had expected it to rebound and average 0.4% in Q4. This makes it more likely that the SNB will cut into... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update US-Swiss deal to help reverse GDP contraction Assuming it is implemented soon, the deal to lower US tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to 15% would leave Swiss exporters paying the lowest US average tariff rate of any major economy, at around 7%... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2025) The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in Q3 shows that US trade policies have been much more disruptive for Switzerland than was anticipated. But a deal agreed last Friday will reduce the tariff on Swiss exports... 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October) The slight fall in Swiss headline inflation in October will come as a big surprise to the SNB, which expected inflation to increase markedly in the fourth quarter. However, we think that inflation is... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB heading for negative rates (but no others following) We think it is just a matter of time before the SNB returns to negative policy rates as inflation is close to zero and geopolitical risks may put upward pressure on the franc. But negative rates will... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Swiss inflation to be stuck at zero Switzerland’s inflation remained at just 0.2% in September and it is likely to average close to zero over the coming years. This is in part due to temporary factors, such as reductions in the mortgage... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) Switzerland’s headline inflation rate once again remained at 0.2% in September, but we think it will fall back to zero by early next year. Accordingly, we expect the SNB to cut interest rates again... 2nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Tariff Announcement The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1st, the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports of pharmaceutical products and a 25% tariff on imports of heavy trucks is not quite as big a... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the Swiss-Japanese yield divergence Yields in Switzerland and Japan may diverge even further over the next couple of years. But we don’t think Japan’s escape from zero rates will diminish the yen’s relative appeal as a safe haven. 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (September 2025) While the SNB kept its policy rate at zero today and left its inflation forecast unchanged, we still expect policymakers to cut the policy rate into negative territory over the coming quarters. We... 25th September 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to avoid negative rates… for now SNB policymakers have recently pushed back against the prospect of lowering interest rates below zero, so they are likely to leave the policy rate at zero next week. However, we think inflation will... 18th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (August) Headline inflation was unchanged in August and is still likely to remain close to, but above, zero over the coming months. While today’s data and recent comments by SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2025) Growth slowed significantly in Switzerland in the second quarter as tariff front-running eased. The economy is likely to expand only slowly the next couple of quarters as high US tariffs and elevated... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update On the severed bond between Swiss and German bonds We expect the Switzerland-Germany 10-year government bond yield spread to widen a little further, even though it’s already the largest it has been in about three decades. 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
