No quick fix in sight for France; ECB to hold rates

This week’s PMI data suggest that France’s political and fiscal crises are taking an increasing toll on the economic outlook. And with little prospect of meaningful fiscal consolidation before next year’s election, we think things could get worse before they get better. Meanwhile, the ECB is likely to leave rates on hold next week and given the lack of second-round effects from energy prices, we’re comfortable with our view that the ECB will raise rates by less investors are pricing in over the coming year or so.  

We’ll be discussing France's political and fiscal crises and what happens next in a 20-minute online session at 2.00pm GMT on Tuesday 27th October. (Register here.)