Global Markets Update How the timing of rate cuts could affect bond yields We think that sovereign bond yields in most major economies will generally reach their troughs around the same time over the next year or so. But with the Bank of Japan seemingly set to buck the trend... 6th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revising our ECB forecast, German fiscal space In light of this week’s data releases we are bringing forward our forecast for the first ECB rate cut to June next year and now think the deposit rate will fall from 4% currently to 3% by the end of... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may fall by less than Treasury yields next year While we think both yields will fall next year, we expect a smaller drop in the yield of 10-year Bunds than in that of 10-year Treasuries. 29th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal policy adds to headwinds Euro-zone governments have been tightening fiscal policy this year and will continue doing so in 2024 – all the more so if Germany chooses to make some additional expenditure cuts in response to the... 24th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q3) and Ifo Survey (Nov.) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November mirrors the increase in the Composite PMI released yesterday but leaves the index deep in contractionary territory. It does not change our... 24th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November 2023) Despite the rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November, it remained consistent with the economy contracting 0.2% in Q4. Meanwhile, the breakdown provides further evidence that the labour market... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany’s constitutional court strikes again The constitutional court ruling that the German government's use of off-budget funds is unlawful is another headache for the ruling coalition in Berlin. However, we doubt that it will result in as... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (Sept.) German industrial production fell much more than anticipated in September and the prospects for the winter months look very poor. 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate cuts still a long way off, fiscal rules debate This week’s comments by ECB officials, as well as signs that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain strong, support our view that the first ECB rate cut will only come in the second... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q3) and state CPI (October) The small decline in German GDP in the third quarter and upward revision to the previous two quarters means the economy is not doing quite as poorly as anticipated. But GDP has essentially been... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Energy prices still a headwind for Germany European natural gas prices have fallen a long way from their 2022 peaks and the possibility of another energy crisis this winter now looks remote. However, prices are still much higher than they were... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of diverging euro-zone spreads Yields in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain have diverged in unusual directions this year, and we doubt that these trends will revert any time soon. 26th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Oct.) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October still left the index in contractionary territory, echoing the downbeat message from the Composite PMI released yesterday. This chimes... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German ZEW (October) Although the headline ZEW survey for Germany rose in October it was still very weak, while the low reading for the current conditions index supports our view that the economy is in recession. 17th October 2023 · 2 mins read
