Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish; French politics; defence spending to rise? Investors appear to have interpreted Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday, and the subsequent leaks to the media, as more hawkish than expected. But we remain convinced that the ECB will cut... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry 1733929200 What’s the outlook for struggling German auto manufacturers? How big a threat do Donald Trump and Chinese imports present?
Europe Economics Weekly Growth, inflation and fiscal policy Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of... 29th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Don’t expect a big fiscal stimulus in Germany It now seems increasingly likely that, as we had been expecting, Germany will loosen its strict fiscal rule after the upcoming general election. However, hopes of a big fiscal stimulus are likely to... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect... 27th November 2024 · 29 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (November 2024) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November left it even deeper into recessionary territory and is consistent with our view that the German economy will continue to struggle in the... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe and geopolitics, Germany’s debt brake Ten days after the US presidential election we outline the key implications for Europe, ranging from higher tariffs and defence spending to a faster “decoupling” from China. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Bonds Update What to make of shrinking swap spreads in Germany We wouldn’t read much into the recent contraction in swap spreads in Germany. Despite turning negative, the 10-year euro-zone OIS/Bund spread is not far below its level before the pandemic. And it... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tariff threat to German auto sector another headwind If Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose a high sector-specific tariff on European cars, German firms could suffer a big reduction in exports, deepening the crisis in the sector and... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Germany’s early election The collapse of its coalition government, triggered by disagreement over fiscal policy, means Germany will probably have a CDU-led government by mid-2025. This may be more stable and functional than... 7th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Event CRE Drop-In: The residential outlook – Europe vs the US and the case for outperformance 1731423600 Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver?
