Europe Economics Focus Assessing the China shock for the euro-zone The rise of China has brought both costs and benefits to the euro-zone over the past two decades, but policymakers are increasingly focusing on the costs. We expect the EU to impose more trade defence... 23rd March 2026 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes now the “base case” In light of this week’s further rise in energy prices and damage to Qatar’s energy infrastructure we have revised our euro-zone forecasts. In our new “base case” the ECB hikes rates three times this... 20th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update German economy still weak despite fiscal loosening Even though fiscal policy in Germany is being loosened significantly, signs of a recovery in activity have been tentative at best. Our base case remains that activity will pick up this year but a... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (January) The falls in German industrial production in January and December erased most of the recovery seen in the previous months and left output close to its post-pandemic low. With the current spike in... 9th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone policymakers in wait-and-see mode, for now While the spike in energy prices and recent inflation data have reduced the chances of rate cuts this year, we do not expect the ECB to pivot to rate hikes either, provided energy prices do not rise... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest US tariffs, Germany’s recovery Following last week’s Supreme Court decision, we think policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic will aim to keep tariff rates close to the levels agreed last year. So our base case is that tariff... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ national inflation data (February) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation rose in February and that the core and services rate s were little changed. That is unlikely to change the ECBs... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the German fiscal stimulus With Germany’s fiscal stimulus now beginning to show up in the data, we think the increase in defence and infrastructure spending may be even slower and smaller than we had assumed – but that may be... 24th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (February 2026) Although the German Ifo remained quite weak in February, we still think economic conditions in Germany are improving. And for now at least, it seems mostly likely that the US Supreme Court ruling and... 23rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth slowing, what next for Lagarde? February's PMIs showed an increase in price pressures, but we suspect that this reflects higher oil prices as other indicators suggest that wage growth has continued to slow. We expect a further... 20th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone flash PMIs (February) February’s flash PMIs support the view that activity in the euro-zone economy is growing at a reasonable pace, led by a pick-up in Germany, and that price pressures remain too high for the ECB to... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ housebuilding subdued, civil engineering growing There is likely to be an increase in civil engineering activity in the euro-zone this year as Germany’s government boosts infrastructure spending. However, we think that this boost will be smaller... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bundesbank embracing joint borrowing? Comments by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel this week suggest the German central bank has abandoned its long-standing opposition to EU joint borrowing. But while we might see some more jointly... 13th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The slump in German industrial production in December pours cold water on the hopes of an industrial recovery. And though the recent pick-up in industrial orders suggests the outlook for the start of... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
