Europe Economics Weekly Feeling the heat In the near term, Europe's summer heatwave is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on GDP but poses an upside risk to inflation through its effect on food, electricity and gas prices. Nevertheless... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany: upward revisions but still looking sickly Revisions to Germany’s GDP data suggest that the economy did a little better than previously thought since 2024. But it has still been the clear “sick man of Europe” in the 2020s and its long term... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2026) National data released so far suggest that activity in the euro-zone held up quite well in the second quarter, with GDP in the euro-zone excluding Ireland probably rising by 0.2% q/q . We suspect it... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy still growing despite Iran war Euro-zone GDP (excluding Ireland) rose by 0.3% in Q1 and the latest official activity data point to a similar performance in Q2. Meanwhile, suggestions that European policymakers should engineer a... 17th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s summer of reforms will do little for growth A range of reforms agreed in the past few weeks may shore up confidence in Germany’s government but they will not have much impact on economic growth. We are forecasting GDP to increase by around 0.7%... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Will Germany's reform plans spark an economic recovery? 16th July 2026, 3:00PM BST A series of tax, pension and labour market reforms has raised hopes that Germany's new government is finally tackling the structural problems holding back the economy.
Europe Economics Weekly ECB interest rates & required reserves; EU-China trade The huge decline in energy prices over the past two months, together with June's HICP data, suggest that euro-zone inflation will be even lower in the near term than in the ECB's "milder scenario"... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (June 2026) The national HICP data for June suggest that euro-zone headline inflation fell from 3.2% in May to 2.8% in June. That would leave it below the ECB’s forecast, making it less likely that the Bank will... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German pension reform encouraging, but will take time Germany’s pension reforms should slow the rise in public sector pension spending a little, encourage people to remain in work for longer, and channel more savings into equities. But the benefits of... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (May 2026) The national HICP data for May suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged up from 3.0% in April to 3.1%. If oil and natural gas prices remain around current levels or fall back, energy inflation... 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic growth may stall in Q2 The downbeat set of business surveys for May which were published this week have prompted us to shave our forecast for quarterly GDP growth to zero in Q2. Further ahead, an outright recession is... 22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Limited scope for fiscal support in energy price shock Governments in developed economies have so far been circumspect in providing fiscal support to households to cushion the impact of higher energy prices. This is likely to remain the case given that... 11th May 2026 · 4 mins read
