Global Markets Update Fiscal health and the outlook for the euro-zone’s bond markets We continue to forecast a small fall in euro-zone yield spreads over Bunds in the next year or so. However, rising risks to the upside in recent months and differences in fiscal positions between... 22nd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Milan office yield looks unsustainable Milan prime office yields appear very low both compared to other alternative assets and other euro-zone countries. By any standards, office property there looks highly overvalued. But looking ahead... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italian households save the day? Italian households have been the main net purchasers of Italian government bonds recently and we suspect that they will buy a lot more in the coming months. However, the sustainability of Italy’s debt... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate cuts still a long way off, fiscal rules debate This week’s comments by ECB officials, as well as signs that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain strong, support our view that the first ECB rate cut will only come in the second... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus High bond yields to push up Italy’s debt ratio to 150% The prospect of a long period of high bond yields and some signs of fiscal slippage by Prime Minister Meloni’s government have worsened the outlook for public finances in Italy. We now think the debt... 1st November 2023 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of diverging euro-zone spreads Yields in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain have diverged in unusual directions this year, and we doubt that these trends will revert any time soon. 26th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The fiscal implications of the rise in bond yields Perceptions matter at least as much as actual policies in determining fiscal stability. Accordingly, the surge in bond yields over the past month poses the greatest risk to those countries where the... 16th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about Italy’s public debt? The recent shift towards looser fiscal policy in Italy and increase in sovereign bond yields once again have raised concerns that investors may lose confidence in Italy’s ability to sustain its debt... 9th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy deficit projections: worry but don’t panic The Italian government’s decision to raise its deficit targets suggests it is trying to get away with as little fiscal tightening as possible. With EU fiscal rules set to come back into force next... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak macro outlook to weigh on Italian office rents After a strong 2022, annual office rental growth has slowed in Italy in H1 2023. And given the contraction in employment we are forecasting, together with increased supply, we think prime rents will... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain and Italy hit harder by ECB rate hikes The higher share of floating rate mortgages in Italy and Spain means that household interest spending in both countries has risen much further than in Germany and France. Interest spending is also set... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy GDP (Q2 2023) The drop in GDP in Italy in Q2 means euro-zone output probably rose by 0.3% q/q in Q2, and just 0.1% if Ireland is excluded. Italy is no longer outperforming its peers and we think it will experience... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy may only spend a quarter of EU Recovery Fund Italy has already accumulated so many delays in spending NextGenerationEU money that it will only be able to use a fraction of the funds and any boost to growth is likely to be much smaller than hoped... 24th July 2023 · 6 mins read
