Energy Update Oil demand to rise, but it won’t stop prices falling Global oil demand looks to have held up much better so far in 2021 than during 2020, despite a resurgence of COVID infections in many parts of the world. We expect strong oil demand growth to continue... 17th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (May) The PMIs are consistent with the euro-zone’s economic recovery gathering pace in May. Price pressures in the manufacturing sector are intensifying, but we still think that higher inflation will be... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Drop back in bond yields takes pressure off ECB The fall in sovereign bond yields over the past week may make things a little easier for the ECB Governing Council when it meets on 10 th June. We think it is likely to replace its commitment to make... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy will struggle to grow as restrictions tightened With infections rising and restrictions being tightened, we expect Italy’s economy to do little more than stagnate in the first half of the year. Activity in the retail and hospitality sectors will... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Draghi reform the euro-zone? Mario Draghi’s reputation and large majority put him in a strong position to promote euro-zone reform and he may have some successes in areas such as banking union and fiscal rules. But he will be... 16th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Calling time on Italian prime retail rental growth We think that prolonged weakness in domestic and foreign spending on prime high streets in Italy will add to pressure on rental affordability, triggering rental falls this year. However, a less... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Pandemic has improved Italy’s debt dynamics The COVID-19 crisis has led to something of a paradox: Italy’s public debt ratio has risen, but the probability of default has fallen. That’s largely because BTP yields are likely to stay far lower... 11th February 2021 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions about a Draghi-led government The markets have reacted well to the news that Mario Draghi has been tasked with forming a new government. It is hard to think of a better candidate to lead Italy through a crisis, but we doubt that... 4th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily ECB probably more important than Draghi for BTPs A successful outcome to Mario Draghi’s attempt to form a new government in Italy would probably be good news for the country’s sovereign bonds (BTPs). But even if the current political crisis drags on... 3rd February 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt that the BTP sell-off will continue While the yield of ten-year Italian government bonds has risen recently, we continue to expect it to fall back by end-2021 thanks to ECB support and a benign domestic and global backdrop. 22nd January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian economy to contract in Q4 Italy’s new tiered COVID-19 restrictions are likely to cause GDP to fall by about 2.5% q/q in Q4, and there is a risk that government is forced into a more severe national lockdown. That said, the... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian industrial data not as good as they look August’s strong increase in industrial production in Italy is not as good as it first appears. The timelier surveys point to annual declines in output, and rising virus numbers present a growing... 9th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian labour market not finished shedding jobs yet Employment rose in Italy for the first time in five months in August, but this is unlikely to be the start of a trend. With the short-time work scheme becoming less generous and then expiring at the... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions (and answers) about Italy We think that economic activity in Italy is still nearly 10% below its pre-crisis level. Even without a second wave, the economy will remain weak and the budget deficit wide for several years... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Decline in Italian unemployment will soon reverse As the crisis in Italy escalated, record numbers of disillusioned jobseekers dropped out of the labour force, causing the unemployment rate to fall. Now that the lockdown is being lifted and activity... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
