Europe Economics Focus Italy at risk of perma-recession Over the next ten years, we think that Italy’s economy will fail to grow because productivity growth will remain weak and total employment will fall. As a consequence, the public debt ratio will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slowing bank lending to weigh on Italy’s economy Higher government bond yields in Italy have not fed through to increased interest rates on bank loans, and this seems unlikely to happen to any significant degree this year. Nevertheless, Italian... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recession likely to drag on Italy’s economy is unlikely to come out of recession in the first half of this year. Several temporary factors might lead to a small expansion in the second half of the year, but even if this happens... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growing slowly, Italy and Germany risks The survey evidence continues to suggest that the euro-zone economy is growing, but that it is doing so only slowly, with the services sector doing all of the heavy lifting. The industrial sector... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy: notes from the ground We have just returned from a day of meetings with clients and local contacts in Rome. In this Update, we summarise the key takeaways from the visit. While the banks are heading in the right direction... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio will soon start to rise Italy’s economy would need to grow more quickly than it has over the past twenty years to prevent the public debt ratio from rising. Given the country’s demographics and poor productivity performance... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) Retail sales figures for December were no worse than expected, and upward revisions to the data for October and November show that sales actually rose by 0.6% in Q4 as a whole. However, the final PMIs... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Italy in recession? The recession in Italy last year appears to have been due to a combination of (temporary) disruption in the car sector and a (perhaps less temporary) decline in confidence among consumers and firms... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further fall in Italian investment likely this year A poor economic outlook and elevated political risks are unlikely to result in a reversal of the increased risk aversion towards Italian property assets. As a result, investment in Italy is likely to... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slowdown intensifies, ECB slightly dovish The latest batch of business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy may be stalling rather than just slowing. We think the ECB will tweak its forward guidance in March, and will at least consider... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from elections in Europe this year In a busy election calendar this year, the focus will be on the rise of populist and euro-sceptic parties. Elections for the European Parliament in May are the most high profile event, but there will... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy kicks the can down the road This week, Italy’s Government again showed itself to be more flexible than many had anticipated. But its fiscal problems are far from over and, in our view, public debt still looks unsustainable in... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys highlight particular weakness of Italy While business surveys have weakened throughout the euro-zone, they imply quite different things for growth in each economy. The Spanish surveys still bode well. But the German and French indicators... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal troubles are not over Italy’s government has agreed to reduce its budget deficit forecast for next year, which reduces the risk of a crisis in the near term. But this does not spell the end of its fiscal troubles. With the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
