Europe Economics Update Are bond markets too sanguine about Italy? Investors appear to be calm ahead of Italy’s forthcoming election, and we think that they are right not to panic. That said, the next government is likely to be more lax with fiscal policy, so we... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update A sweet spot for Italian retail rents The combination of strong consumer spending growth and rising tourism appears to have been behind the sharp rise in prime retail rents in Milan and Rome last year. With these conditions set to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to make of Italy’s centre-right policy programme Italy’s coalition of centre-right parties has proposed a raft of sweeping policies that would cause a blow-out in the budget deficit and possibly a significant shrinking of the workforce. But in... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Would a “flat tax” give Italy’s economy a boost? Two of the leading contenders to form a government after Italy’s general election on 4th March advocate a radical overhaul of the country’s tax code. Their plans would result in a substantial... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Italian politicians really pull Italy out of the euro? Italy’s general election in March looks likely to produce a fragmented government with eurosceptic tendencies. We don’t think that it will pull Italy out of the euro-zone, but it may cause yields to... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3, Breakdown) In Q3, Italy’s economy grew more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole for the ninth straight quarter. Timelier activity surveys suggest that growth will pick up a little in the run-up to next year’s... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks are on the mend, but recovery will be slow Italy’s banks are on the mend, but it will be a very long time before they get a clean bill of health. As long as they remain weak, the economic recovery will be vulnerable to a loss of confidence in... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Italian economy finally turning a corner? This year, the Italian economy looks set to record its best performance since 2010. And we doubt that uncertainty in the run-up to next year’s general election will bring the recovery to a halt. But... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softer services activity is no cause for alarm The latest euro-zone data have brought signs of a slowdown in activity in the services sector compared to that in manufacturing. But we suspect that the slowdown in services will be modest. After all... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Sep.) Today’s French and Italian industrial production data, along with other national data released earlier in the week, suggest that euro-zone output fell by 0.6% in September. But forward-looking... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Ind. Prod. & German Trade (Aug.) The unexpected softness of French industrial production in August suggests that industry weighed on France’s GDP growth in the third quarter and contrasted with the robust Italian data. Meanwhile... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Italy no longer a risk? Italy’s eurosceptic parties have recently eased up on their most anti-euro rhetoric, but it is far too early to sound the all clear. With the banking sector weak, public debt very high and the economy... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP Breakdown (Q2) & Greek GDP (Q2) Italy’s economy is improving steadily, but is likely to continue growing more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole. This leaves it vulnerable to losses of confidence, perhaps sparked by concerns about... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Italy’s banks ready to support the economic recovery? Italy’s banking sector has seen signs of improvement this year. But it is a long way from full health, so the country’s lenders are unlikely to contribute significantly to the economic recovery any... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Ten years on, is the euro-zone out of the woods? Ten years ago this week marked the start of the global financial crisis and a challenging time for the euro-zone economy. In many respects, the euro-zone finally appears to be out of the woods. Growth... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How big a worry is euroscepticism in Italy? The latest Eurobarometer survey suggested that Italy is one of the most eurosceptic members of the single currency. While there are reasons why an Italian exit from the euro over the next few years is... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read