EZ energy import bill rising, military production booming

This week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the jump in the EU's energy import bill since the conflict in the Middle East began, but in our baseline forecast the increase in 2026 as a whole would not be out of the ordinary. Meanwhile, although the outlook for euro-zone industry is quite poor, production in military-related sectors is on a tear and is likely to continue rising rapidly. Next week, we expect the first business surveys for April to signal subdued GDP growth.

We will be hosting an Online Drop-In on China's shock to the euro-zone at 3pm (BST) on Thursday 23rd April. (Please register here.)