Europe Economics Weekly

French budget deadlock to continue

Following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s administration, there is no realistic prospect of a stable government being formed that could address France’s fiscal problems. There is a risk that the...

6th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB to cut by 25bp and state further cuts to come

In contrast to market pricing, we think that the SNB will be cautious and cut its policy rate by just 25bps, to 0.75%, next week as the Bank sticks to a gradual approach to loosening monetary policy...

5th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (November)

While all three key measures of inflation in Sweden rose in November, this does not change the underlying story that inflation is around its target level and is likely to stay there over the next year...

5th December 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (November)

The uptick in Swiss inflation in November is likely to prove short-lived and should not prevent the SNB from cutting interest rates again in December and further next year.

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Revised bond yield forecasts, Trump and the SNB

Our new bond yield forecasts show US and German bond yields diverging slightly over the coming year as monetary policy is loosened more aggressively in Europe. Meanwhile, we think a universal US...

22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024)

Stable property yields and solid rental growth supported a second rise in prime all-property values in Q3. While there is still likely to be upward pressure on yields in some markets, property values...

21st November 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2024)

Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further encourage the SNB...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports...

8th November 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Bumper cut today, but smaller cuts to follow

Today’s 50bp cut is likely to be the only one in the cycle for the Riksbank, and we expect it to cut by just 25bp at its next two meetings to take the policy rate to its “terminal” level of 2.25% in...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to start cutting in early 2025

Alongside its decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, Norges Bank reiterated that it expects to remain on hold in December too. It is likely to start cutting in Q1 next year and we suspect...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (November 2024)

The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 50bp today to 2.75%, but the accompanying policy statement suggested that it plans only two more 25bps rate cuts to take it to a “terminal” rate of 2.25%. Given...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (October)

Another larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation in Switzerland will increase concerns that the country could temporarily enter deflation next year. This will pile on pressure on...

1st November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

One step at a time for the Riksbank

Despite the Riksbank reopening the door to a 50bp cut at its last meeting, we think it will proceed gradually and cut by 25bps next week to 3.0%. This is because the policy rate is approaching the...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut

Norway’s economy is struggling and inflation keeps falling faster than Norges Bank expects, yet the Bank has not started loosening policy. Next week we think it will open the door to a December rate...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden GDP (Q3)

Preliminary data show that Sweden’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the third quarter, far below the consensus expectation and the Riksbank’s forecasts (0.5% and 0.2% respectively). At face value...

29th October 2024 · 2 mins read