Europe Economics Weekly ECB looking on the bright side The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. We think this is only partly justified as we are sceptical about President... 19th December 2025 · 10 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (December 2025) Today’s decision to leave the policy rate at 4.0% came as no surprise and the Bank’s messaging repeated that any further rate cuts will be very gradual. We are forecasting the next cut to come in... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (December 2025) While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater confidence... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tempering the optimism Market moves over the past fortnight show that investors are becoming more optimistic about the euro-zone economy, but we are less bullish on the growth outlook. Meanwhile, the recent acceleration in... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Commercial property recovery losing steam The recovery in European commercial property values is slowing and we think this will continue as soft economic growth weighs on rents and elevated interest rates limit yield-driven capital gains... 11th December 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on hold over coming quarters The Riksbank will keep the policy rate at 1.75% next week and will probably leave its forward guidance unchanged, saying that it will maintain the current policy rate for some time to come. Norges... 11th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s negative rate reluctance to be tested next year The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation and kept faith that its zero interest policy rate will be sufficient to boost inflation in the medium term. We think it will be less relaxed next... 11th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (December 2025) The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation in the fourth quarter and kept its policy rate at zero. However, we think it will be less relaxed next year, when we expect inflation to average just... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because... 10th December 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (December 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 5th December 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth will remain weak The small upward revision to the euro-zone's third-quarter GDP growth, from +0.2% to +0.3% q/q, does not change our view that there has been no meaningful increase in momentum in the second half of... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to bide its time and delay negative rates to 2026 Inflation undershot the SNB’s forecast and fell to zero in November, but we think officials are unlikely to respond by lowering the policy rate next week. By June next year, however, we think that... 4th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The fall in Swiss inflation to zero will raise significant concerns in the SNB as officials had expected it to rebound and average 0.4% in Q4. This makes it more likely that the SNB will cut into... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German pension policy: backsliding more than France? While much attention has been given recently to pension policy in France, it has gone almost unnoticed that the German cabinet has approved a pension package that could be significantly more costly... 28th November 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2025) Softening rental growth and steady yields weighed on capital value growth in many markets in Q3. And this is likely to continue, with our Capital Value Lead Indicator pointing to a further slowdown in... 24th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth falling, consumers gloomy, EC optimistic Data published this week confirmed that wage growth is slowing and consumers are downbeat. As a result, household spending growth is likely to remain subdued. Next week, we expect to learn that... 21st November 2025 · 7 mins read
