Europe Economics Weekly Lower gas price forecasts, ECB to leave rates unchanged We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario for gas prices, euro-zone inflation... 10th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s borrowing costs in the spotlight again The rise in energy prices and the slight loss of popularity of Giorgia Meloni’s government have caused Italy’s bond yields to rise more than France's since the start of the Iran conflict. We now think... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Effects of Iran conflict beginning to show up There were clear signs this week that the Iran conflict is causing inflation and inflation expectations to rise in the euro-zone. Next week we expect to learn that headline inflation jumped from 1.9%... 27th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update No need for SNB to respond to energy shock Higher energy prices will push headline inflation up in Switzerland this year, but we think that it will remain well within the SNB’s target range. So rather than raising interest rates as is... 26th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes now the “base case” In light of this week’s further rise in energy prices and damage to Qatar’s energy infrastructure we have revised our euro-zone forecasts. In our new “base case” the ECB hikes rates three times this... 20th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response SNB Monetary Policy decision (March 2026) The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at zero today and nudged up its inflation forecast trivially. Otherwise, its commentary underlines the Bank’s willingness to intervene to limit upward pressure... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How might governments respond to the energy shock? If oil and natural gas prices remain high, it seems very likely that governments will step in with some fiscal support. The scale of that support is uncertain, but even if energy prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update European office vacancy to stabilise this year A softening new supply pipeline and indications that demand is gradually improving suggest office vacancy in Europe should stabilise this year. That said, we expect that any falls will be small... 3rd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest US tariffs, Germany’s recovery Following last week’s Supreme Court decision, we think policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic will aim to keep tariff rates close to the levels agreed last year. So our base case is that tariff... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2026) Slightly lower prime property yields supported property values across most markets in 2025. However, we expect property yields to hold broadly steady this year and capital value growth to slow. 24th February 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth slowing, what next for Lagarde? February's PMIs showed an increase in price pressures, but we suspect that this reflects higher oil prices as other indicators suggest that wage growth has continued to slow. We expect a further... 20th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Switzerland to lead Europe on AI While we think it will take several years before AI has a meaningful impact on Europe’s economies, Switzerland may be an exception. There is already some evidence of a positive boost from AI. And we... 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2026) Commercial property valuations held steady in Q4, with falling equity dividend yields offsetting rising government bond yields. Looking ahead, falls in western European government bond yields this... 17th February 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q4 2025) The 0.2% q/q rise in sporting event adjusted GDP in Q4 was a bit smaller than we expected (+0.5%). This may be partly because the 39% tariff imposed on Switzerland by the US was only reduced to 15%... 16th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bundesbank embracing joint borrowing? Comments by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel this week suggest the German central bank has abandoned its long-standing opposition to EU joint borrowing. But while we might see some more jointly... 13th February 2026 · 7 mins read
