Mexico’s government seems confident that it can negotiate an agreement to stave off President Trump’s threat of a 30% tariff that was delivered over the weekend. And even if the tariff came into force, so long as carve-outs for USMCA-compliant goods as well as electronics remain in place, the impact should be limited. But the tariff threats are likely to continue weighing on investment – and GDP growth – and add to reasons to think that the central bank’s easing cycle has further to run.
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