President Trump’s threat to put a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil is less about trade disputes and more about political disagreements, and so it’s harder to see an off-ramp for Brazil compared with other countries that received tariff letters. While Brazil isn’t very dependent on US demand, the hit to GDP might be in the order of 0.3-0.5% of GDP. And other countries with deteriorating relations with the US – Colombia for example – now look more vulnerable to finding themselves in the tariff crosshairs.
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