Commodities Update Venezuela blockade poses limited upside to oil prices The US blockade on sanctioned oil from Venezuela crystallises a key risk that has overshadowed the oil market in recent months. That said, the upside risks for oil prices are limited, not least... 17th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s FX shift will still leave the peso overvalued The announcement by Argentina’s central bank that it will widen the peso’s trading bands is a step in the right direction, but it won’t be enough to bring the peso closer to its fair value. With the... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What Kast’s victory means for Chile Chilean markets appear to have largely already priced in José Antonio Kast’s victory in the second round of the presidential election yesterday – and the prospect of stronger public finances and more... 15th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: shifting towards interest rate hikes? There’s a growing debate about whether the Colombian central bank will hike rates. And several plausible triggers – from a pre-election spending spree to a bumper minimum wage hike – could tip the MPC... 2nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update AI boom fuelling Mexico’s exports The sharp rise in Mexico’s goods exports in October underscores that the country’s external sector has continued to fare well in the face of US tariffs. That has been helped by a surge in sales of... 27th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s easing cycle likely to be deeper than most expect Brazil’s monetary policy stance is extremely tight – the policy rate is at its highest level since the mid-2000s. With GDP growth likely to disappoint and inflation softening, there should be ample... 17th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What’s at stake in Chile’s election? The latest polls suggest that a right-wing candidate is likely to win Chile’s presidential election on 16th November, probably leading to more pro-business policymaking and a tighter fiscal stance... 10th November 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Recession fears overdone but growth to stay weak The recent resurgence of recession fears in Mexico appears overblown to us, but there’s no doubt that the economy is struggling. While most attribute the weakness to higher tariffs, tight fiscal... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Argentina’s mid-terms The larger-than-expected victory for Argentina’s President Milei in Sunday’s mid-term elections has sparked a rally in Argentinian financial markets. Our initial response to the election can be found... 27th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: the macro implications of political turmoil The impeachment of Peru’s President Dina Boluarte has once again shone the spotlight on the country’s governability problem, and it doesn’t look like next year’s election will resolve this. Peru’s... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Argentine peso: what to expect after the mid-terms Despite denials from policymakers, we think that Argentina’s exchange rate regime in its current form is unsustainable and that there will be a change after the mid-term elections later this month. We... 14th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: election could derail recent fiscal progress Brazil’s government has brought its primary budget more or less back into balance over the past year, which has helped to improve investor confidence and drive a rally in Brazilian bonds. But... 2nd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update US throws a lifeline to the Argentinian peso US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s renewed pledge to “do what is needed” to support Argentina in a post on X earlier today, including purchases of Argentinian sovereign US dollar bonds and a... 24th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The implications of Mexican tariffs on China Mexico’s congress has approved a series of import tariff hikes that take effect next year and mainly target China. The tariffs help to achieve many of the Mexican government’s goals – appeasing the US... 28th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates: where the market could be surprised Our EM interest rate forecasts generally lie on the dovish side. But, in particular, we think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts that will be delivered in Brazil and... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm debt risks easing, but still some pockets of concern Sovereign debt risks across Latin America have eased in the past year or so but there are still important nuances at a country level. Public finance risks in Brazil and Colombia are most concerning... 19th August 2025 · 3 mins read
