Potential implications of a regime change in Cuba

The macroeconomic implications of regime change in Cuba – in whatever form – are likely to remain limited beyond Cuba’s own economy, given that the island does not play a major role on the global stage. The more significant consequences would be geopolitical: it would show that, despite the war in Iran, the Western Hemisphere remains a key priority for the Trump administration. Pressure on Cuban authorities to curb China’s presence and align the island more closely with Washington’s interests is likely.