The data for March and April seem to confirm that Brazil’s economy is one of the few economies benefitting from the energy price shock. As things stand, the risks to our 2026 growth forecast of 1.5% now look tilted to the upside. This comes against a backdrop of limited spare capacity, though, and argues in favour of the BCB treading carefully with its easing cycle. We expect 25bp rate cuts at each meeting this year.
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