Argentines head to the polls on Sunday in crucial mid-term elections that will determine the future of President Milei's stabilisation programme. A poor showing for his La Libertad Avanza party would not only cast doubts over the future of the US’s support for Argentina but also increase the chances of a sharp – and potentially disorderly – fall in the peso. With the lion's share of Argentina's sovereign debt denominated in dollars, a plunge in the peso would cause default risks to intensify again. Elsewhere, GDP data from Mexico due out next Thursday are likely to show that the economy contracted in Q3, which should pave the way for another 25bp cut at Banxico's next meeting in November.
Note: We'll be discussing the outcome of Argentina's mid-term elections in an online briefing on Monday 27th October – register here.
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