Latin America Economics Weekly Milei on shakier ground, Brazil’s slowdown The decision by the Argentinian government to support the peso by raising required reserve ratios for banks highlights a point we’ve been making for a while – that the Milei administration is firmly... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Worsening current account positions, Bolivia’s election One theme to emerge from the recently-released GDP figures is that domestic demand is increasingly leaking into imports, which will cause current account positions to worsen. External positions still... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Shift in rate expectations in Brazil, Chile set for slowdown The latest data out of Brazil point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q2, which, alongside softening inflation, has led to a shift in the debate towards interest rate cuts, perhaps by year-end. This... 15th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s remittance drop, Pemex, Brazil adapts to tariffs The large drop in remittances to Mexico (in dollar terms) in June suggests that the Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented migrants is starting to have an economic impact south of the border... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s tariff resilience, exemptions for Chile & Brazil Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Financial lifeline for Pemex, busy week for central banks In a busy week for central banks, we expect policymakers in Chile and Colombia to resume their easing cycle and Copom to leave its policy rate unchanged. But the overarching picture in Latin America... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lula and Trump up the ante The USTR’s opening of a Section 301 investigation into Brazil this week and Lula’s fiery rhetoric in response makes it even harder to see a way in which Brazil avoids punitive US tariffs. The hit to... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lat Am in Trump’s firing line, good news on inflation The broad-based falls shown in the CPI figures for June suggest that the inflation picture in Latin America has become a bit better, supporting our view that central banks in many places will deliver... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s communist candidate, Mexico’s weak economy The victory for communist candidate, Jeannette Jara, in the Chilean governing coalition’s presidential primary election was received warmly by markets – her presence on the ballot is seen as... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: US-Mexico trade, Argentina’s rebalancing Timely trade figures out of Mexico this week show that, even though its producers appear to be struggling to make goods USMCA compliant, exports held up reasonably well last month. And leading... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Diverging rate decisions, Middle East war & Lat Am While Chile’s central bank this week flagged that it will resume its easing cycle soon, Brazil’s hiked interest rates and didn’t close the door to additional tightening. But despite Brazilian... 20th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal plans, Mexican exports The Colombian government’s fiscal plans due to be released later today are likely to see a much less ambitious budget deficit target and a suspension of the fiscal rule, which will raise further... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal drama, no TACO for Mexico this week We doubt that the Colombian government will manage to assuage investors’ concerns about the country's public finances when it publishes its fiscal plans next Friday. Elsewhere, the political wrangling... 6th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s judicial election, Argentina’s bond sale Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday to elect almost 900 federal judicial positions and thousands of positions at the local level in a major overhaul of the country's judiciary that has raised... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Brazil’s robust Q1, Milei’s victory, Panama protests Data out of Brazil next week are likely to show that the economy rebounded in Q1 and inflation rose in the first half of May, supporting the case for the central bank to deliver one final rate hike in... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
