Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile shifts right, current account deficits, Banco Master

The first round of Chile’s presidential election resulted in right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast becoming the clear front-runner in the second round due in December. Kast’s steps this week signal a...

21st November 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela-US tensions, Brazil’s rare earths, Chile votes

A military engagement between the US and Venezuela might push oil prices higher (although we suspect the move would be limited), lead to renewed migration outflows and harden pro- or anti-US stances...

14th November 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile’s election, delayed cuts in Brazil and Colombia

Chile's presidential race is entering the final straight, with the latest polls suggesting that the most likely outcome is a victory for left-wing candidate Jara in the first round, but a win for...

7th November 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Investors cheer Milei’s win, Brazil’s soybeans

The strong showing for Milei's LLA party in Argentina's mid-term elections last Sunday has led to a sharp improvement in sentiment and should ease pressure on the peso in the near-term. But the risk...

31st October 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

All eyes on Argentina’s election, Mexico’s weak economy

Argentines head to the polls on Sunday in crucial mid-term elections that will determine the future of President Milei's stabilisation programme. A poor showing for his La Libertad Avanza party would...

24th October 2025 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s high-stake election, BRL under pressure

Comments from US President Trump this week suggest the financial support for Argentina will be contingent on Milei doing well in the mid-terms later this month. A strong showing for Milei's party...

17th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s job market, Argentina’s bailout, Peru’s crisis

The announcement that the US Treasury purchased Argentine peso assets has provided a boost to Argentina’s financial markets. It's unclear what the US will demand in exchange, but it could include the...

10th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

BanRep hawks, Colombia-US rift intensifies

The hawkish tone accompanying the Colombian central bank (BanRep)’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.25% this week supports our view that there’s much less room for easing in Colombia...

3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Trump bails out Milei, and meets with Lula next week

The big news out of Latin America this week was the US government’s announcement that it would “do what is needed” to support Argentina. Unsurprisingly, local markets reacted positively. It might give...

26th September 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia’s decertification, Brazil’s slowdown

The Trump administration’s determination this week that Colombia had failed to meet its counter-narcotics obligations won’t have immediate economic implications, but it does make Colombia more...

19th September 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico jumps on the tariff bandwagon, Milei’s defeat

Mexico's decision this week to impose tariffs on countries it doesn't have a free trade agreement with (notably China) was probably influenced by trade talks with the US, but it also supports the...

12th September 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Rubio in Lat Am, Brazil slows, Buenos Aires votes

Marco Rubio's trip to Latin America this week highlighted the US’s growing focus on the region - and particularly efforts to curb drug trafficking. The next thing to watch is Colombia's narcotics...

5th September 2025 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei on shakier ground, Brazil’s slowdown

The decision by the Argentinian government to support the peso by raising required reserve ratios for banks highlights a point we’ve been making for a while – that the Milei administration is firmly...

29th August 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Worsening current account positions, Bolivia’s election

One theme to emerge from the recently-released GDP figures is that domestic demand is increasingly leaking into imports, which will cause current account positions to worsen. External positions still...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Shift in rate expectations in Brazil, Chile set for slowdown

The latest data out of Brazil point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q2, which, alongside softening inflation, has led to a shift in the debate towards interest rate cuts, perhaps by year-end. This...

15th August 2025 · 5 mins read