Latin America Economics Weekly Kast unveils his cabinet, Copom on hold next week Chilean president-elect Kast's cabinet suggest that the new administration's key priorities will be to strengthen Chile’s public finances and deregulate the economy. We doubt that this will lead to... 23rd January 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly US-Venezuela thaw, Mexico’s AI exports, BanRep hikes Recent developments point to a thawing in relations between the US and Venezuela under interim President Delcy Rodríguez, with a possible rolling back of sanctions now being discussed by US officials... 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Donroe Doctrine unleashed The seizure of Venezuela's President Maduro by the US this week has underscored that the Western Hemisphere is firmly back in the US’s foreign policy focus. For Venezuela itself, oil will undoubtedly... 9th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s rate hike risks, Copom, Kast’s victory While our base case is that Colombia's central bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting later today, the further deterioration in the fiscal picture and the prospects of a large... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fiscal risks, Mexico’s China tariffs The Colombian senate’s rejection of President Petro's tax bill adds to our concerns that the country's already-fragile public finances are likely to deteriorate further ahead of next year’s election... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer slowdown, the “Trump Corollary” GDP data from Brazil released this week showed that the economy slowed in Q3 - a trend we expect to continue into 2026. While the Selic rate is all but certain to be left on hold on Wednesday, the... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s slowdown, Honduras voting for Trump or Xi GDP data from Brazil due out next Thursday are likely to show that the economy contracted in Q3, which, combined with the recent fall in inflation and inflation expectations, supports our view that... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile shifts right, current account deficits, Banco Master The first round of Chile’s presidential election resulted in right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast becoming the clear front-runner in the second round due in December. Kast’s steps this week signal a... 21st November 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-US tensions, Brazil’s rare earths, Chile votes A military engagement between the US and Venezuela might push oil prices higher (although we suspect the move would be limited), lead to renewed migration outflows and harden pro- or anti-US stances... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s election, delayed cuts in Brazil and Colombia Chile's presidential race is entering the final straight, with the latest polls suggesting that the most likely outcome is a victory for left-wing candidate Jara in the first round, but a win for... 7th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Investors cheer Milei’s win, Brazil’s soybeans The strong showing for Milei's LLA party in Argentina's mid-term elections last Sunday has led to a sharp improvement in sentiment and should ease pressure on the peso in the near-term. But the risk... 31st October 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly All eyes on Argentina’s election, Mexico’s weak economy Argentines head to the polls on Sunday in crucial mid-term elections that will determine the future of President Milei's stabilisation programme. A poor showing for his La Libertad Avanza party would... 24th October 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s high-stake election, BRL under pressure Comments from US President Trump this week suggest the financial support for Argentina will be contingent on Milei doing well in the mid-terms later this month. A strong showing for Milei's party... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s job market, Argentina’s bailout, Peru’s crisis The announcement that the US Treasury purchased Argentine peso assets has provided a boost to Argentina’s financial markets. It's unclear what the US will demand in exchange, but it could include the... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep hawks, Colombia-US rift intensifies The hawkish tone accompanying the Colombian central bank (BanRep)’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.25% this week supports our view that there’s much less room for easing in Colombia... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Trump bails out Milei, and meets with Lula next week The big news out of Latin America this week was the US government’s announcement that it would “do what is needed” to support Argentina. Unsurprisingly, local markets reacted positively. It might give... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
