Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal plans, Mexican exports The Colombian government’s fiscal plans due to be released later today are likely to see a much less ambitious budget deficit target and a suspension of the fiscal rule, which will raise further... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal drama, no TACO for Mexico this week We doubt that the Colombian government will manage to assuage investors’ concerns about the country's public finances when it publishes its fiscal plans next Friday. Elsewhere, the political wrangling... 6th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s judicial election, Argentina’s bond sale Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday to elect almost 900 federal judicial positions and thousands of positions at the local level in a major overhaul of the country's judiciary that has raised... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Brazil’s robust Q1, Milei’s victory, Panama protests Data out of Brazil next week are likely to show that the economy rebounded in Q1 and inflation rose in the first half of May, supporting the case for the central bank to deliver one final rate hike in... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lower oil prices, Banxico on track for another 50bp cut The downward revision to our oil price forecast is likely to exacerbate public finance risks in some of the region's major oil producers, notably Colombia and Ecuador. But other countries, especially... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: BanRep’s dovish shift, Copom nearing an end The unanimous decision by Colombia's central bank to lower its policy rate by 25bp, to 9.25%, earlier this week suggests that the Board is more dovish than we’d thought. That will raise fears, similar... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s weak economy, US support for Argentina The latest data out of Mexico suggest that, despite repeated tariff threats, the economy eked out positive growth in Q1 and avoided a technical recession. But activity is still extremely subdued... 25th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s new exchange rate regime, Noboa’s victory The smaller-than-expected fall in the Argentinian peso following the easing of capital controls suggests that the move has released pent-up hard currency flows back into the economy. Our sense is that... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s IMF deal #23, tariff relief, Hegseth in Panama One key feature of Argentina's latest IMF deal – which the Fund's Board is set to vote on today – is likely to be a shift towards a more flexible exchange rate and an easing of capital controls. While... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Getting off relatively lightly Governments across Latin America are likely to be breathing sighs of relief following US President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday - they've ended up facing tariff rates at the lower end of... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico: tariffs, carve outs and Banxico Mexico is the most exposed country to the auto tariffs that US President Trump announced this week and, while there are carve-outs for USMCA-compliant trade, these will probably provide little relief... 28th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Petro’s finance minister #4, new macro forecasts The replacement of Colombia’s finance minister with a close ally of President Petro reinforces our concerns that fiscal policy won't be tightened sufficiently to stop the public debt ratio from rising... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom’s conundrum, Argentina & the IMF Figures out this week underscored the strength of inflation in Brazil, but we think the weakness in the latest economic activity might just be enough to prompt Copom to make the 100bp hike (to 14.25%)... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Trump tariffs on Mexico: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Mexico may have received a (belated) reprieve from US tariffs this week, but some goods will still be subject to US duties now and there’s still the lingering uncertainty about what (if any) tariffs... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Another week of tariff threats, Brazil’s slowdown Mexico's government has pulled out all the stops to stave off the 25% US import tariff that is scheduled to come into effect next Tuesday and another 11th hour deal remains a possibility. But if the... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
