Latin America Economics Weekly

Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries

The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to...

8th March 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s election campaign, Brazil’s G20 damp squib

Campaigning for Mexico’s election on 2nd June officially kicks off today. The presidential front-runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, will probably continue the social policies of her predecessor but is likely...

1st March 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown

Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next...

23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentine inflation, Pemex’s debt problem

Argentina’s President Javier Milei has made tackling rampant inflation – which data out this week showed is now running at over 250% – a key priority, but the historical record in Latin America...

16th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Copom’s challenges, Amlo’s amendments

This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most...

9th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s setback, Venezuela’s sanction, new rate forecasts

Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere...

2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s re-industrialisation, Banxico, shipping dashboards

The Brazilian government’s announcement of a new industrial plan this week points to greater state intervention in the economy that will do little to alleviate the country’s productivity problem...

26th January 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex

Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural...

19th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story

The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government...

12th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s IMF deal, Chile’s recovery, Nafta turns 30

President Milei's stabilisation plan for Argentina's economy makes it more likely that the IMF will agree to relax the current programme criteria when officials from both sides meet later today. But...

5th January 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina deregulates, Brazil’s tax reform, rate cuts

The past week saw a flurry of pro-growth reforms that could boost long-term growth prospects in parts of the region. In Argentina, President Milei took a first big step towards reducing the role of...

22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s belt tightening, Chile votes, LatAm & the Fed

The fiscal tightening announced by Argentina's new administration this week is a step in the right direction but, with public discontent set to intensify, the government's commitment to fiscal...

15th December 2023 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela-Guyana tensions, new macro forecasts

Venezuela’s increasingly assertive claims over the oil-rich Essequibo region, internationally recognised as part of Guyana, has raised the risk of some kind of miscalculation that leads to military...

8th December 2023 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s Messi of finances, job markets, Banxico to cut?

The confirmation that Luis Caputo will be Argentina’s next economy minister reinforces our view that, while President-elect Javier Milei is likely to put the economy through shock therapy, it will be...

1st December 2023 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

A silver lining in Argentina

Argentina’s financial markets welcomed Javier Milei’s victory in the presidential election last Sunday and, in particular, signs that he will pursue a form of shock therapy stripped of some of more...

24th November 2023 · 6 mins read