Mexico may have received a (belated) reprieve from US tariffs this week, but some goods will still be subject to US duties now and there’s still the lingering uncertainty about what (if any) tariffs Mexico will face from 2nd April. We suspect that Mexico’s economy will only just eke out positive growth this year, with the risks skewed to the downside in the event that it does face large tariffs. Meanwhile, the increase in fiscal support in China unveiled at this week’s National People’s Congress won’t be enough to stop the economy from slowing and industrial metals prices from falling. That’s bad news for major producers in Latin America and is a key reason why we expect growth to slow, and currencies to weaken, this year.
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