Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s budget, Brazil’s hike, new macro forecasts

The Argentine government's ambitious 2025 budget plans unveiled this week are underpinned by very optimistic economic projects and meeting the 'zero deficit' target will be challenging. And at the...

20th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Sluggish growth but stubborn inflation

Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus...

19th September 2024 · 19 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Amlo’s last hurrah, oil price drop, Fed easing and Lat Am

Outgoing Mexican President Amlo’s controversial judicial reform has been one of the key drivers of the weakness in the peso and we think there’s still some downside risk to the currency, especially if...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (August 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most Latin American economies appear to have headed into Q3 with little momentum...

28th August 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Banxico, Chile’s current account, Brazil’s rate hike debate

The data out of Mexico this week, alongside the minutes to the central bank’s August meeting, support our view that Banxico will continue its easing cycle in September. Elsewhere, the further...

23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q2 2024)

The 0.6% q/q fall in Chilean GDP in Q2 is mainly payback for a strong Q1, and we expect a return to positive growth in Q3. Still, the Q2 figures should the central bank confidence to deliver a couple...

19th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Banxico cuts, LatAm and the global market turmoil

The Mexican peso was on a rollercoaster ride this week but, as we'd expected, Banxico placed more emphasis on the weakness in the economy as it pressed ahead with a 25bp cut (to 10.75%). And the...

9th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in...

24th July 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina intervenes (again), Q2 shaping up to be weaker

Argentine financial assets sold off this week after Economy Minister Caputo announced that the central bank will start to sell dollars in the parallel market. The plan shows that the government is...

19th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Food inflation, US tariffs, Colombia’s public finance risks

The raft of June inflation data out this week was not as bad as the rise in the headline rates would suggest, as higher food inflation masked falls in in core inflation. Core inflation appears most...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The fourth consecutive increase in Chilean inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in June means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 5.75% at the central bank’s meeting at the end of the month. We...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage

The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. After a strong start of the year, regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s IMF review, cautious central banks

The eighth review of Argentina’s IMF programme published this week is a whole-hearted endorsement of President Milei’s economic record. That said, the Fund called on Argentine authorities to take...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Weak growth to make fiscal challenge harder

The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to...

20th June 2024 · 21 mins read