Latin America Economic Outlook

Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges

Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region...

12th June 2025 · 21 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (May 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the...

27th May 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Lat Am elections: about to shift back to the right?

The low public support for (left-wing) incumbents in many of Latin America’s largest economies, taken together with weak public finances, suggests that the wave of the upcoming elections could act as...

21st May 2025 · 8 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q1 2025)

The stronger-than-expected 0.7% q/q expansion in Chile’s economy in Q1 on the back of robust domestic demand supports our view that Chile’s central bank will leave its policy rate on hold for a bit...

19th May 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive

The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when...

16th May 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

US and China try to shift the fracturing map

The flurry of diplomatic activity by both the US and China this week underscores that geopolitical alliances in parts of the emerging world are fluid. We suspect that most countries in Latin America...

16th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Lower oil prices, Banxico on track for another 50bp cut

The downward revision to our oil price forecast is likely to exacerbate public finance risks in some of the region's major oil producers, notably Colombia and Ecuador. But other countries, especially...

9th May 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: BanRep’s dovish shift, Copom nearing an end

The unanimous decision by Colombia's central bank to lower its policy rate by 25bp, to 9.25%, earlier this week suggests that the Board is more dovish than we’d thought. That will raise fears, similar...

2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin America generally got off lightly on ‘liberation day’, but the indirect...

15th April 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s IMF deal #23, tariff relief, Hegseth in Panama

One key feature of Argentina's latest IMF deal – which the Fund's Board is set to vote on today – is likely to be a shift towards a more flexible exchange rate and an easing of capital controls. While...

11th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Getting off relatively lightly

Governments across Latin America are likely to be breathing sighs of relief following US President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday - they've ended up facing tariff rates at the lower end of...

4th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The protectionist shift in the US will weigh heavily on Mexico’s economy, which at...

26th March 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind

Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our...

20th March 2025 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

​​Mapping China’s presence in Latin America​

China’s presence in Latin America is increasingly seen as a strategic threat by the US. This Focus uses interactive charts to map out economic, financial and institutional linkages between China and...

19th March 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q4 2024)

Growth in Chile’s economy slowed to 0.4% q/q in Q4, but more timely monthly activity data suggest that the economy headed into 2025 with more momentum. This, combined with above-target inflation...

18th March 2025 · 2 mins read