Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s tariff resilience, exemptions for Chile & Brazil

Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be...

1st August 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025)

Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have...

31st July 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jul. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. President Trump’s tariff threats this month put Latin America in the firing line...

29th July 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Financial lifeline for Pemex, busy week for central banks

In a busy week for central banks, we expect policymakers in Chile and Colombia to resume their easing cycle and Copom to leave its policy rate unchanged. But the overarching picture in Latin America...

25th July 2025 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Lat Am in Trump’s firing line, good news on inflation

The broad-based falls shown in the CPI figures for June suggest that the inflation picture in Latin America has become a bit better, supporting our view that central banks in many places will deliver...

11th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

US tariffs add to headwinds facing Chile’s copper sector

Chile’s economy is the most exposed globally to US copper import tariffs. But while the impact would probably be small, it would add to deep-seated problems facing the copper sector. Register here to...

9th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025)

The larger-than-expected fall in Chilean inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in June supports our view that policymakers will resume its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, to 4.75%, later this month.

8th July 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile’s communist candidate, Mexico’s weak economy

The victory for communist candidate, Jeannette Jara, in the Chilean governing coalition’s presidential primary election was received warmly by markets – her presence on the ballot is seen as...

4th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Lat Am central banks to surprise on the dovish side

Our views on the outlook for monetary policy in Latin America have been on the hawkish side for some time, but we now think that there’s scope for interest rates in many countries in the region to...

2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Diverging rate decisions, Middle East war & Lat Am

While Chile’s central bank this week flagged that it will resume its easing cycle soon, Brazil’s hiked interest rates and didn’t close the door to additional tightening. But despite Brazilian...

20th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico has weathered the US’s shift toward protectionism better than many feared...

17th June 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges

Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region...

12th June 2025 · 21 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (May 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the...

27th May 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Lat Am elections: about to shift back to the right?

The low public support for (left-wing) incumbents in many of Latin America’s largest economies, taken together with weak public finances, suggests that the wave of the upcoming elections could act as...

21st May 2025 · 8 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q1 2025)

The stronger-than-expected 0.7% q/q expansion in Chile’s economy in Q1 on the back of robust domestic demand supports our view that Chile’s central bank will leave its policy rate on hold for a bit...

19th May 2025 · 2 mins read