Latin America Economics Update What La Niña means for Latin America There is a growing chance of a La Niña weather pattern taking hold in the second half of this year. While the economic effects would depend on its severity and length, La Niña events tend to coincide... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: room for interest rate cuts this year is narrowing The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting suggest that the easing cycle over the next few quarters will be stop-start... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in at a weaker-than-expected 4.7% y/y in May but the continued strength of core services inflation means that it is increasingly likely that Banxico will leave... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker... 24th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While GDP growth in the Andean economies will be stronger this year than last, the opposite... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Andean economies on the recovery path The strong pick-up in Andean economies at the start of this year confirms that their painful rebalancing process has run its course. GDP growth will be stronger this year than last – unlike in Brazil... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q1 2024) The 1.9% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q1 confirms that the economy is gathering momentum following a weak 2023 and has prompted us to revise up our (once above consensus) 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.8... 20th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily LatAm currencies may weaken despite hawkish bias The hawkish tone of Latin American central banks this week supports our view that loosening cycles in the region will proceed more gradually than many anticipate. But even so, we think most Latin... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) The slightly larger-than-expected rise in Chile’s inflation to 4.0% y/y in April supports our view that the central bank will once again slow the pace of easing with a 50bp cut (to 6.00%) at its... 8th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Q1 growth rebound, Panama votes, fiscal risks rising The activity data from Latin America released over the past week or so suggest that, having come to a standstill in Q4, there was a strong rebound in growth in Q1 on the back of robust services... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The worst may be over for the Chilean peso We think the headwinds driving the depreciation of the Chilean peso against the US dollar have largely run their course. We expect the Chilean peso to recover some ground by the end of the year. 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Services inflation concerns, Peru’s pension withdrawal The downside headline inflation surprises from some of the region's major economies this week mask the continued strength in underlying core services inflation. Stubborn underlying price pressures... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Chile’s inflation to 3.7% y/y in March has increased the chances of the central bank delivering another 75bp cut at its next meeting in May, although we still think... 8th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico hawks, Panama downgrade, Peru’s ‘Rolexgate’ The hawkish tone of the Banxico minutes released this week adds weight to our view that the easing cycle in Mexico will be very gradual and we think it's most likely that rates will be kept on hold at... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
