Latin America Economics Weekly BRL on a tear, monetary policy divergence The strong performance of the Brazilian real appears to have been driven by a rise in the price of some of Brazil's key export commodities. But we expect these prices to fall back over the remainder... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank paves the way for July rate cut The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting have reinforced our view that the easing cycle will commence in July. We... 20th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB to cut soon? Chile’s FX reserves Expectations for interest rate cuts in Brazil have grown in light of recent developments, but, for now, we’re sticking with our view that Copom will hold off on lowering interest rates until November... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strong wage growth to temper falls in inflation and rates The tightening of labour markets across Latin America in the past year or so has fuelled rapid wage growth in many economies and wage growth is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while yet... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian asset rally, encouraging inflation news Hopes that the latest political drama in Colombia will cause President Gustavo Petro's reform agenda to stall have sparked a rally in the country’s financial markets this week. But with the current... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Rate cuts coming, but easing will be gradual The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but... 8th June 2023 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Andes adjusting, tight job markets in Brazil & Mexico Data out this week suggest that Colombia’s economy has started to undergo an adjustment process, which is set to continue over the course of this year and next and underpins our forecast that growth... 2nd June 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal rule inches closer, Chile’s bank risks The strong support for Brazil’s new fiscal framework in a vote in the lower house this week suggests that there’s more political appetite for austerity than we had anticipated. And, taken together... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack A temporary rebound in growth The latest activity figures suggest that most Latin American economies held up better than we’d thought in the first few months of 2023. Mexico and Colombia made surprisingly strong starts to the year... 23rd May 2023 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s ‘mutual death’, external imbalances easing Ecuador’s political crisis escalated this week after President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly to dodge an imminent impeachment vote. Whoever wins the fresh elections, the next couple... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) Growth in Chile’s economy accelerated at the start of the year, but the headline figure masks signs of pronounced weakness. We expect the economy to struggle over the coming quarters amid tight... 18th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Easing inflation, Chile shifts right, Mexico’s super-peso The raft of April inflation figures released this week showed a more marked decline in core price pressures. That being said, we don’t think inflation (or interest rates) will fall as far as many... 12th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep’s inflation concerns, Chile votes (again) We warned a few weeks ago that Colombia’s central bank (BanRep) was too sanguine on inflation risks, but hawkish comments this week show that policymakers’ views on inflation are shifting towards our... 5th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strength in exports unlikely to last The surge in exports from Latin America’s major economies in March suggests that the upside risks to our GDP growth and currency forecasts are building. But with advanced economies poised to fall into... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Monetary policy stance slowly shifting The raft of inflation data over the past couple of weeks will have provided some relief for Latin American central banks, with headline rates in most countries now on a clear downward trajectory. In... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read