Mixed news on inflation, Argentina’s debt repayment

The larger-than-expected rise in inflation in the Andes in June is likely to pave the way for an interest rate hike in Peru while increasing the chances of Colombia’s central bank continuing its tightening cycle later this month. Meanwhile, inflation in Brazil and Mexico surprised to the downside, leaving a rate cut in August in play in the former. Elsewhere, Argentina made a $4.3bn FX debt repayment this week that fits into the wider picture of an improved macroeconomic environment since President Milei came to office. But we think more works still needs to be done, in particular with regard to the exchange rate.