Argentine joy, oil price jump, Brazil tariffs

The US's announcement of a 25% Section 301 US import tariff on Brazil made a splash this week, but the macroeconomic effect is likely to limited. Meanwhile, the renewed rise in oil prices would - if sustained - make us more confident that the next move in interest rates in Chile, Peru and Mexico will be up. Finally, Argentina's past victories in football tournaments have been good omens for the economy. But irrespective of what happens on the pitch on Sunday, the country still faces significant hurdles on the path to more stable and sustainable growth.