Mexico’s GDP rebound, smooth(ish) USMCA talks

GDP data from Mexico due out next Thursday are likely to show that the economy rebounded last quarter after a contraction in Q1, which may quell some of Banxico's dovish talk. Further out, the outlook for Mexican growth will hinge in part on how trade ties with the US develop and talks this week progressed relatively well, but the Section 338 tariffs on Canadian imports announced this week could be seen as a warning shot and threatened on Mexico if it doesn’t make further concessions. Elsewhere, the renewed rise in oil prices is likely to prompt Chile's central bank to strike a more hawkish tone at next Tuesday's meeting, while Colombia's is likely to deliver another 50bp hike on Friday.