Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Trump tariffs on Mexico: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Mexico may have received a (belated) reprieve from US tariffs this week, but some goods will still be subject to US duties now and there’s still the lingering uncertainty about what (if any) tariffs...

7th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Another week of tariff threats, Brazil’s slowdown

Mexico's government has pulled out all the stops to stave off the 25% US import tariff that is scheduled to come into effect next Tuesday and another 11th hour deal remains a possibility. But if the...

28th February 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s investment, auto tariffs

The bright spot in the Colombian Q4 GDP data published this week was the rise in fixed investment, but the volatile political situation and low savings rate will limit the rise in the coming years...

21st February 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Another week, another tariff, Chile’s hawks

Some major Latin American economies look among the most exposed to the steel and aluminium tariffs (Mexico and Brazil) and reciprocal tariffs (Argentina and Brazil) announced by US President Trump...

14th February 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Tariffs paused, Milei & the cepo

While Mexico avoided a 25% US import tariff on Monday with a last minute deal, the threat hasn’t gone away. Were a 25% tariff to come into force, that would tip the economy into recession. And the...

7th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Is Argentina's economy back? And what just happened in Turkey?

19th March 2025, 3:00PM GMT

Argentina's President Javier Milei has made impressive progress in turning the economy around, but the key question now is whether these achievements can be sustained.

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: In the tariff crosshairs

Parts of Latin America have been in President Trump’s firing line over the past week. While there’s uncertainty over exactly what tariffs Mexico could face (if they are imposed tomorrow, as Trump has...

31st January 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Tariffs, transit fees, and terrorists

The Trump administration’s first week has given policymakers in Latin America plenty to fret about. The 25% import tariff threatened on Mexico (as well as Canada) would, if implemented, hit the...

24th January 2025 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s peso risk, Sheinbaum’s Made in Mexico plan

The decision by Argentina's government to slow the rate of depreciation of the peso will help to bring down inflation further. But it will also lead to a further appreciation in the real exchange rate...

17th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Panama Canal, Brazil’s shrinking trade surplus

While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming...

10th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s market meltdown

Heavy FX intervention, hawkish noises from central bankers and the approval by congress of spending cuts in the past 24 hours appear to have (just about) pulled Brazil out of the throes of a currency...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s one-year anniversary, Brazil’s jumbo rate hike

Argentinian President Javier Milei's first year in office has been much more successful than we (and other analysts) had expected but, absent a weaker exchange rate, it will be difficult to return the...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits

Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important...

6th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico & the trade war, Brazil’s fiscal malaise

Mexico appears to have found the off-ramp after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the country on day one of his presidency. Even so, given Mexico’s...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s challenging budget, G20 summit

The sharp reduction in the budget deficit envisaged in Mexico’s draft budget for 2025 will have been welcomed as a sign that the new Sheinbaum administration is taking fiscal discipline seriously. But...

22nd November 2024 · 6 mins read