The seizure of Venezuela's President Maduro by the US this week has underscored that the Western Hemisphere is firmly back in the US’s foreign policy focus. For Venezuela itself, oil will undoubtedly play a key role in the reconstruction, although the extent to which Venezuela’s economy can turn around will depend on the nature of the post-Maduro government - and the extent to which it pushes reform. Elsewhere in the region, the threat of US military intervention could be used against Mexico to get concessions ahead of the USMCA review. And the likelihood that the US tries to influence upcoming elections in the region in its favour has risen.
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