Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes

One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook

Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued...

1st November 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes

Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace...

25th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates

A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Sheinbaum’s first two weeks in office, Banxico minutes

President Claudia Sheinbaum's first two weeks in office suggest that she will seek to maintain Mexico’s close geopolitical alignment with the US. But on the domestic front, there have been more...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

BanRep’s fiscal worries, Chile’s deficit, Brazil’s upgrade

The decision by Colombia’s central bank to maintain rather than step up the pace of easing at this week’s policy meeting suggests that officials there are increasingly worried about the fiscal...

4th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico in Trump’s firing line, Colombia’s budget drama

Donald Trump's threats this week to impose tariffs on imports of cars and agricultural equipment from Mexico highlight how big a risk his return to the White House would pose to Mexico’s free trade...

27th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s budget, Brazil’s hike, new macro forecasts

The Argentine government's ambitious 2025 budget plans unveiled this week are underpinned by very optimistic economic projects and meeting the 'zero deficit' target will be challenging. And at the...

20th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Amlo’s last hurrah, oil price drop, Fed easing and Lat Am

Outgoing Mexican President Amlo’s controversial judicial reform has been one of the key drivers of the weakness in the peso and we think there’s still some downside risk to the currency, especially if...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

The BCB’s upcoming U-turn

The strength of Brazil’s economy shown in the Q2 GDP figures released this week means the central bank (BCB) now looks set to raise interest rates, having cut rates as recently as May. Still, monetary...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

New bosses for Pemex and the BCB

The nomination of Gabriel Galípolo, an ally of President Lula, as the next head of Brazil’s central bank has raised concerns about the politicisation of monetary policy (and a dovish tilt). But...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Banxico, Chile’s current account, Brazil’s rate hike debate

The data out of Mexico this week, alongside the minutes to the central bank’s August meeting, support our view that Banxico will continue its easing cycle in September. Elsewhere, the further...

23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela?

Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Banxico cuts, LatAm and the global market turmoil

The Mexican peso was on a rollercoaster ride this week but, as we'd expected, Banxico placed more emphasis on the weakness in the economy as it pressed ahead with a 25bp cut (to 10.75%). And the...

9th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela: rig and repress

The declaration that incumbent Nicolás Maduro won Venezuela’s presidential election has been met with protests and international pressure for a full account of the results. But our sense at this stage...

2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read