Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be smaller than we'd previously thought. Elsewhere, the surprisingly strong Q2 GDP figures from Mexico can, at least in part, be pinned on exports holding up well despite Trump's tariff threats. While Banxico is likely to deliver a 25bp rate cut, to 7.75%, at next week's meeting, the risks to our interest rate forecasts are now probably skewed to the upside.
We will be discussing EM financial risk in a 20-minute Drop-In on Wednesday 6th August (15.00 BST/ 10.00 ET). Register here.
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