Colombia votes, Copom confusion

Right-wing candidate de la Espriella is well placed to secure Colombia’s presidency on Sunday, paving the way for a shift towards more business-friendly policies and fiscal austerity. But he will inherit a gaping budget deficit and putting the public finances on an even keep will be challenging. Elsewhere, our reading of Copom’s somewhat confusing communications from its meeting this week is that it is leaving the door open to a couple more 25bp cuts before year-end. Elsewhere, Mexico’s central bank is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at 6.50% next Thursday, but we think the next move in rates will be up, probably before the year is out.