Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal plans, Mexican exports The Colombian government’s fiscal plans due to be released later today are likely to see a much less ambitious budget deficit target and a suspension of the fiscal rule, which will raise further... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region... 12th June 2025 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May 2025) Mexico’s headline inflation rate jumped to 4.4% y/y in May but this was mainly driven by stronger non-core prices and so is unlikely to trouble officials at the central bank. Indeed, with the economy... 9th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal drama, no TACO for Mexico this week We doubt that the Colombian government will manage to assuage investors’ concerns about the country's public finances when it publishes its fiscal plans next Friday. Elsewhere, the political wrangling... 6th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Policy turmoil starting to damage investment intentions Trade policy uncertainty has damaged investment intentions in the US, Canada, Mexico and South East Asia. But intentions elsewhere have held up better and investment growth itself has yet to falter... 4th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trade war weighing on EM manufacturers’ sentiment The manufacturing PMIs remained subdued across EMs last month despite the US-China trade truce. That said, the timely hard activity data released so far has shown more resilience than the survey data. 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s judicial election, Argentina’s bond sale Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday to elect almost 900 federal judicial positions and thousands of positions at the local level in a major overhaul of the country's judiciary that has raised... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broad improvement in global risk appetite. But while our base case is that EM markets eke out further gains, the range of... 29th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May 2025) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of May, to 4.2% y/y, was driven in large part by non-core components and is unlikely to sway Banxico’s thinking... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central America most exposed to a US remittance tax The proposed 5% US tax on remittance outflows would have a particularly large negative impact on Central American economies such as Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. Remittance flows could... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: what are the leading indicators saying? The latest survey data out of Mexico have been woeful and, while high-frequency hard data suggest that activity hasn’t fared as badly as might have been feared, the bigger picture is that the economy... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 11th June 2025) · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lower oil prices, Banxico on track for another 50bp cut The downward revision to our oil price forecast is likely to exacerbate public finance risks in some of the region's major oil producers, notably Colombia and Ecuador. But other countries, especially... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
