Emerging Markets Economics Update

A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs”

The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic...

12th March 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: next phase of stabilisation plan more difficult

Argentina’s President Javier Milei has pledged to remove capital controls but we think that a major change in Argentina’s exchange rate setting before the mid-term elections in October is unlikely...

26th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Some major Latin American economies are among the most exposed to the steel and...

17th February 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Another week, another tariff, Chile’s hawks

Some major Latin American economies look among the most exposed to the steel and aluminium tariffs (Mexico and Brazil) and reciprocal tariffs (Argentina and Brazil) announced by US President Trump...

14th February 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Tariffs paused, Milei & the cepo

While Mexico avoided a 25% US import tariff on Monday with a last minute deal, the threat hasn’t gone away. Were a 25% tariff to come into force, that would tip the economy into recession. And the...

7th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Event

Drop-In: LatAm Outlook – Trade war, elections & debt risks

1750255200

Latin America’s economies have proven surprisingly resilient through the first half of the year and the region’s financial markets have been among the world’s be

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2025)

Financial vulnerabilities remained near multi-year lows across EMs at the end of last year, driven by a further decline in currency crisis risk. The overall picture remains one of EM resilience and...

29th January 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent jitters across the region, with...

27th January 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s peso risk, Sheinbaum’s Made in Mexico plan

The decision by Argentina's government to slow the rate of depreciation of the peso will help to bring down inflation further. But it will also lead to a further appreciation in the real exchange rate...

17th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem

Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to...

7th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (December 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s one-year anniversary, Brazil’s jumbo rate hike

Argentinian President Javier Milei's first year in office has been much more successful than we (and other analysts) had expected but, absent a weaker exchange rate, it will be difficult to return the...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify

Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks...

12th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (November 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Currencies across Latin American have held up relatively well in the wake of the...

25th November 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Latin America’s debt risks revisited

A year ago, we published an in-depth report arguing that the calm prevailing at the time around sovereign debt risks in Latin America wouldn’t last and that public debt dynamics would deteriorate...

20th November 2024 · 3 mins read