Latin America Economics Weekly Milei’s setback, Venezuela’s sanction, new rate forecasts Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (January 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Improved LatAm budget positions won’t stop debt rising Headline and primary budget balances across Latin America generally improved over the course of 2023 (Brazil was a key exception). But it seems unlikely that this will be sustained, and debt-to-GDP... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update IMF endorses Milei’s plans but hurdles ahead The IMF’s approval of the next disbursement of Argentina’s current deal will provide the government with the necessary funds to make upcoming repayments (due to the Fund itself). And the fact that the... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF deal, Chile’s recovery, Nafta turns 30 President Milei's stabilisation plan for Argentina's economy makes it more likely that the IMF will agree to relax the current programme criteria when officials from both sides meet later today. But... 5th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deregulates, Brazil’s tax reform, rate cuts The past week saw a flurry of pro-growth reforms that could boost long-term growth prospects in parts of the region. In Argentina, President Milei took a first big step towards reducing the role of... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (December 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico... 20th December 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: first step towards defusing the ‘Leliq bomb’ At face value, the Argentine central bank’s (BCRA’s) decision yesterday to switch (and essentially lower) its policy rate seems at odds with the goal of tackling the country’s severe inflation problem... 19th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s belt tightening, Chile votes, LatAm & the Fed The fiscal tightening announced by Argentina's new administration this week is a step in the right direction but, with public discontent set to intensify, the government's commitment to fiscal... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: positive first steps but more therapy needed The economic reform measures announced yesterday by Argentina’s Economy Minister Luis Caputo, including a large devaluation of the peso and fiscal tightening, mark a clear change in policymaking from... 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-Guyana tensions, new macro forecasts Venezuela’s increasingly assertive claims over the oil-rich Essequibo region, internationally recognised as part of Guyana, has raised the risk of some kind of miscalculation that leads to military... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Messi of finances, job markets, Banxico to cut? The confirmation that Luis Caputo will be Argentina’s next economy minister reinforces our view that, while President-elect Javier Milei is likely to put the economy through shock therapy, it will be... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A silver lining in Argentina Argentina’s financial markets welcomed Javier Milei’s victory in the presidential election last Sunday and, in particular, signs that he will pursue a form of shock therapy stripped of some of more... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America: is another debt crisis brewing? Fiscal risks in Latin America have largely been out of the spotlight over the past year, but we think that public debt concerns will build over the coming years. Sovereign defaults seem more likely... 22nd November 2023 · 17 mins read
