Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region... 12th June 2025 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s judicial election, Argentina’s bond sale Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday to elect almost 900 federal judicial positions and thousands of positions at the local level in a major overhaul of the country's judiciary that has raised... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Brazil’s robust Q1, Milei’s victory, Panama protests Data out of Brazil next week are likely to show that the economy rebounded in Q1 and inflation rose in the first half of May, supporting the case for the central bank to deliver one final rate hike in... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am elections: about to shift back to the right? The low public support for (left-wing) incumbents in many of Latin America’s largest economies, taken together with weak public finances, suggests that the wave of the upcoming elections could act as... 21st May 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Argentina finally fulfil its potential? The impressive progress made by Argentina’s President Javier Milei towards restoring macro stability should set the scene for stronger and less volatile growth than in the past 10-15 years. But we... 15th May 2025 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s weak economy, US support for Argentina The latest data out of Mexico suggest that, despite repeated tariff threats, the economy eked out positive growth in Q1 and avoided a technical recession. But activity is still extremely subdued... 25th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s new exchange rate regime, Noboa’s victory The smaller-than-expected fall in the Argentinian peso following the easing of capital controls suggests that the move has released pent-up hard currency flows back into the economy. Our sense is that... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin America generally got off lightly on ‘liberation day’, but the indirect... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina & the IMF: 23rd time lucky? Argentina’s latest IMF programme and the move to partially dismantle some capital controls and liberalise the exchange rate suggests policymakers are moving more quickly than we’d anticipated to... 14th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s IMF deal #23, tariff relief, Hegseth in Panama One key feature of Argentina's latest IMF deal – which the Fund's Board is set to vote on today – is likely to be a shift towards a more flexible exchange rate and an easing of capital controls. While... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The protectionist shift in the US will weigh heavily on Mexico’s economy, which at... 26th March 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Petro’s finance minister #4, new macro forecasts The replacement of Colombia’s finance minister with a close ally of President Petro reinforces our concerns that fiscal policy won't be tightened sufficiently to stop the public debt ratio from rising... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our... 20th March 2025 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Mapping China’s presence in Latin America China’s presence in Latin America is increasingly seen as a strategic threat by the US. This Focus uses interactive charts to map out economic, financial and institutional linkages between China and... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
