Emerging Markets Economics Update

Friends with benefits: the US, Argentina and other EMs

The US’s recent pledge of support for Argentina raises the question of whether other EMs facing financial difficulty might receive similar assistance. Pakistan and Jordan are potential candidates, as...

16th October 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

The Argentine peso: what to expect after the mid-terms

Despite denials from policymakers, we think that Argentina’s exchange rate regime in its current form is unsustainable and that there will be a change after the mid-term elections later this month. We...

14th October 2025 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar rebounds; blast from the past for yen & Argentina

While President Trump’s return to the trade war path this afternoon has led to a drop in the dollar, it has risen, on net, this week – despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of most US economic...

10th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s job market, Argentina’s bailout, Peru’s crisis

The announcement that the US Treasury purchased Argentine peso assets has provided a boost to Argentina’s financial markets. It's unclear what the US will demand in exchange, but it could include the...

10th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Contrary to consensus expectations for growth to stabilise, we expect growth in...

29th September 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Trump bails out Milei, and meets with Lula next week

The big news out of Latin America this week was the US government’s announcement that it would “do what is needed” to support Argentina. Unsurprisingly, local markets reacted positively. It might give...

26th September 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

US throws a lifeline to the Argentinian peso

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s renewed pledge to “do what is needed” to support Argentina in a post on X earlier today, including purchases of Argentinian sovereign US dollar bonds and a...

24th September 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia’s decertification, Brazil’s slowdown

The Trump administration’s determination this week that Colombia had failed to meet its counter-narcotics obligations won’t have immediate economic implications, but it does make Colombia more...

19th September 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025)

EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is...

17th September 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Focus

Counting the cost of crime in Latin America

Growing public concerns about high crime levels and the apparent success of El Salvador in reducing levels of violence are making law and order a key issue in Latin America’s busy electoral calendar...

16th September 2025 · 17 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico jumps on the tariff bandwagon, Milei’s defeat

Mexico's decision this week to impose tariffs on countries it doesn't have a free trade agreement with (notably China) was probably influenced by trade talks with the US, but it also supports the...

12th September 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises

We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be...

10th September 2025 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Rubio in Lat Am, Brazil slows, Buenos Aires votes

Marco Rubio's trip to Latin America this week highlighted the US’s growing focus on the region - and particularly efforts to curb drug trafficking. The next thing to watch is Colombia's narcotics...

5th September 2025 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei on shakier ground, Brazil’s slowdown

The decision by the Argentinian government to support the peso by raising required reserve ratios for banks highlights a point we’ve been making for a while – that the Milei administration is firmly...

29th August 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in many parts of the region, and Brazil in particular, slowed in Q2...

26th August 2025 · 1 min read