Growth in Argentina’s economy remains unbalanced and we think that large parts of it (outside mining and agriculture) will continue to struggle over the rest of Milei’s term due to fiscal tightening and an overvalued exchange rate. These policies are part of the toolkit for restoring macroeconomic stability, but will result in soft growth (our GDP growth forecasts over the coming years are lower than the consensus) and could sap support for Milei ahead of next year’s general election.
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