The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good chance of accession in the next 5-10 years, notably Montenegro, we doubt that Ukraine and most countries in the Western Balkans will join until the mid-to-late 2030s at the earliest. And, compared to the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) that joined in the 2000s, the benefits of accession will be smaller and more phased out too. For the EU, enlargement in eastern Europe would likely deliver bigger geopolitical than economic benefits.
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page.
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