What’s behind the weakness in Polish inflation?

The surprising softness in Polish inflation this year can be explained partly by lower energy inflation, but also by steep declines in the prices of some durable goods. The latter probably won’t last. And there are strong medium-term inflation pressures which we think will keep inflation higher than most expect in the second half of 2026 and into 2027. But it still looks like there will be a window in the coming months in which low inflation allows the National Bank to cut interest rates one or two more times.