Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey fallout, Polish rate outlook The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday has triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency – which has continued today – and serves as a stark... 21st March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) to hike its overnight lending rate from 44% to 46% today suggests that policymakers have been spooked by the market volatility yesterday and are keen to... 20th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turmoil in a few EMs not a sign of widespread risks The financial market sell-offs in Indonesia, Turkey and Colombia this week are, in part, a reflection of concerns about strained balance sheets. We think that vulnerabilities in some frontier markets... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the sell-off in Turkey’s markets News that Turkey’s main opposition leader has been arrested today raises concerns over a potential return to unorthodox economic policy in Turkey. While the risks to our relatively upbeat view on... 19th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkish lira plunges The sharp drop in the Turkish lira on the news that the main opposition leader, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has been arrested will complicate the central bank’s task of bringing inflation down and raises big... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs” The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic... 12th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to cut its policy rate by 250bp again today, to 42.50%, suggest that policymakers were reassured by the fall in... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for February, of 2.3% m/m, will provide some reassurance that the spike in January was a one-off. And it keeps the door open for the central bank to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2024) The strong 1.7% q/q expansion in the Turkish economy in Q4 appears like a setback to the central bank’s efforts to bring down high inflation, but we don’t think this data is enough to throw the... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2025) On aggregate, EM capital markets have continued to experience outflows in recent weeks and it’s hard to see a significant turnaround given that President Trump’s proposed policies would likely result... 26th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Unpacking the Trump-Putin call The phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin this week and comments by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth caught many by surprise, but these developments have not materially changed our view... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Hawks flying in CEE, growing pressure on the CBR? Communications from central banks in Poland and Czechia this week were both on the hawkish side, but we expect a continued divergence in monetary policy over the coming year as interest rates remain... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Turkish assets may keep doing well despite global challenges Notwithstanding negative FX returns and a challenging external backdrop brought about by Donald Trump’s agenda, we think Turkish bonds and equities will continue to perform relatively well in 2025, as... 5th February 2025 · 4 mins read
