Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP...

31st October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Current accounts, BRICS preview, Sinwar death

The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating...

18th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was accompanied by communications which support our view that monetary easing is still some way off...

17th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

September CPI data, Poland’s fiscal tightening plans

The batch of September inflation data this week offered some welcome signs for policymakers, but the Hungarian central bank seems concerned about recent currency weakness which means that the easing...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank, and supports our view that a monetary easing cycle...

3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)

The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMIs in Turkey and Russia in September provide further evidence that their economies are slowing. But the continued rise in the prices balances of the survey in...

1st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus...

26th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 50.00%, were slightly more dovish than last month, but there are no clear signs to...

19th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Inflation and fiscal risks simmering

We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters...

17th September 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles still likely to be slow from here

While interest rate cuts by the ECB this week and the Fed next week, as well as the fall in oil prices, could set the stage for more monetary easing in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we still think...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey’s optimistic projections, Glapinski’s guidance

Turkey’s medium-term economic programme unveiled this week showed that the government remains committed to the orthodox policy shift. But its projections for a “goldilocks” scenario in which the...

6th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.)

The fall in Turkish inflation, to 52.0% y/y, in August is likely to be followed by continued disinflation over the coming months. But there are signs in the breakdown that underlying inflation...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)

The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of the region in August, although they generally remain at weak levels and suggest that industry has continued to struggle in Q3.

2nd September 2024 · 1 min read