Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the US, will deal only a small hit to GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe. With inflation pressures in parts of the region likely to remain strong too, we think that interest rates will generally be cut by less than most other analysts anticipate over the coming months. Elsewhere, a threatened 100% US tariff on countries importing Russian oil could hit Russian exports hard and squeeze its fiscal position. That presents a downside risk to our already below-consensus GDP growth forecasts there.
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