Armenia’s election on Sunday could mark a further step in the country’s shift away from Russia and towards the West, adding tensions at a time when Russia’s geopolitical leverage has weakened. Elsewhere, the deterioration in the inflation outlook and pressure on the lira are likely to prompt the Turkish central bank to hike interest rates at its meeting next week. We’ve pencilled in 300bp of hikes, taking the one-week repo rate to 40.0%.
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